How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby Jarbo03 » Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:11 pm

Glaciers formed the landscape here in NE KS also. This area I hunt in western KS is full of sharks teeth and marine fossils, in 2010 a 10 ft shark fossil was found. Earth has been going through crazy changes for its whole existence, it's not gonna stop because we are here.

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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby AKPirate » Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:16 pm

Jarbo03 wrote:Glaciers formed the landscape here in NE KS also. This area I hunt in western KS is full of sharks teeth and marine fossils, in 2010 a 10 ft shark fossil was found. Earth has been going through crazy changes for its whole existence, it's not gonna stop because we are here.

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Taz!!!
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:09 am

Very cool pictures Jarbo! :clapping:
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby Gunnysway » Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:37 am

Agreed... What a cool place to hunt... :thumbsup:
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby beretta24 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:16 am

I'm jelly of those quail
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:27 am

assateague wrote:We DO need a model with 100% accuracy if you are going to say "warmer THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN". Unless you have a 100% accurate model, you don't KNOW what it "would have been". You may have a good idea, but you cannot argue the negative.

We do not have a model of ANYTHING that is 100% accurate.

All models are wrong, some are useful. - George Box

Your example of what insulation does in the summer and winter, is a perfect example of this. We know this because we have models, if only those built in our head from experiencing life. Just like we know closing the door when it is cold, keeps the house warmer. If your kids leave the door open in winter, you would never accept from your kids, "but Dad, how do you know, you don't have a 100% accurate model of how much colder it will be, all you know is that it will be colder than it otherwise would be."

Although, maybe you do think it is 50/50 that it would be warmer by leaving the door open in winter.

Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:We DO need a model with 100% accuracy if you are going to say "warmer THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN". Unless you have a 100% accurate model, you don't KNOW what it "would have been". You may have a good idea, but you cannot argue the negative.

Supposition extrapolated to the atmosphere from scientific fact...CO2 is a green house gas and that can be measured in a laboratory.

But yes, there are a lot of variables in real life and the complete interplay between them and global warming can not be fully known.

The effects cannot be fully or precisely known. That is a given. This is no different than economics, yet you come to a lot of conclusions from the results of those models even though the exact same statement applies. Just like the warmers or I guess now we should call them changers (hey that works for Obamites as well as catastrophic warmers), I urge you to be much more skeptical of the models that you are relying upon to come to such certain conclusions.

All models are wrong, some are useful. - George Box

It is accepted that they are wrong. The question is are they useful. My one very long post early discussed why I am skeptical about the usefulness of these models because of the insane complexity of the problem they are trying to model in a useful way.

Jarbo03 wrote:With the earth being 4.5 billion years old, I don't think our 100 or so years of keeping weather records, give us a good average of what earth should be. I believe there have been many periods through the planets history where CO2 levels have been way higher.

There are two real questions. 1) How much warmer will it be. 2) What are the consequences to us?

It has also been much colder and I don't think anyone disputes that significant cooling would be a big net negative for society. To then say that significant warming would also be a big net negative to society is to say that we are sitting at the optimum temperature and the net impact is pretty steep and negative for both cooling and warming. I simply see no evidence to believe we are at the optimum or that the slope is steep as we move away from it. We are an amazingly adaptable species. Not to mention that the year to year variation in weather can be quite dramatic and the plants and animals have adapted to deal which allows them to adapt or at least slow the decay of their population giving us time to adapt. If one agriculture crop ceases to be profitable in a certain region, the agriculture industry will either develop other varieties or they will change where they grow them and people will adapt based on the price signals provided to them based on what is more productive in the new climate and what is less productive in the new climate.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby assateague » Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:08 am

SpinnerMan wrote:
assateague wrote:We DO need a model with 100% accuracy if you are going to say "warmer THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN". Unless you have a 100% accurate model, you don't KNOW what it "would have been". You may have a good idea, but you cannot argue the negative.

We do not have a model of ANYTHING that is 100% accurate.

All models are wrong, some are useful. - George Box

Your example of what insulation does in the summer and winter, is a perfect example of this. We know this because we have models, if only those built in our head from experiencing life. Just like we know closing the door when it is cold, keeps the house warmer. If your kids leave the door open in winter, you would never accept from your kids, "but Dad, how do you know, you don't have a 100% accurate model of how much colder it will be, all you know is that it will be colder than it otherwise would be."

Although, maybe you do think it is 50/50 that it would be warmer by leaving the door open in winter.

Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:We DO need a model with 100% accuracy if you are going to say "warmer THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN". Unless you have a 100% accurate model, you don't KNOW what it "would have been". You may have a good idea, but you cannot argue the negative.

Supposition extrapolated to the atmosphere from scientific fact...CO2 is a green house gas and that can be measured in a laboratory.

But yes, there are a lot of variables in real life and the complete interplay between them and global warming can not be fully known.

The effects cannot be fully or precisely known. That is a given. This is no different than economics, yet you come to a lot of conclusions from the results of those models even though the exact same statement applies. Just like the warmers or I guess now we should call them changers (hey that works for Obamites as well as catastrophic warmers), I urge you to be much more skeptical of the models that you are relying upon to come to such certain conclusions.

All models are wrong, some are useful. - George Box

It is accepted that they are wrong. The question is are they useful. My one very long post early discussed why I am skeptical about the usefulness of these models because of the insane complexity of the problem they are trying to model in a useful way.

Jarbo03 wrote:With the earth being 4.5 billion years old, I don't think our 100 or so years of keeping weather records, give us a good average of what earth should be. I believe there have been many periods through the planets history where CO2 levels have been way higher.

There are two real questions. 1) How much warmer will it be. 2) What are the consequences to us?

It has also been much colder and I don't think anyone disputes that significant cooling would be a big net negative for society. To then say that significant warming would also be a big net negative to society is to say that we are sitting at the optimum temperature and the net impact is pretty steep and negative for both cooling and warming. I simply see no evidence to believe we are at the optimum or that the slope is steep as we move away from it. We are an amazingly adaptable species. Not to mention that the year to year variation in weather can be quite dramatic and the plants and animals have adapted to deal which allows them to adapt or at least slow the decay of their population giving us time to adapt. If one agriculture crop ceases to be profitable in a certain region, the agriculture industry will either develop other varieties or they will change where they grow them and people will adapt based on the price signals provided to them based on what is more productive in the new climate and what is less productive in the new climate.




How much warmer would it have been yesterday if the sun came out from behind the clouds for an extra minute?
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:24 am

assateague wrote:How much warmer would it have been yesterday if the sun came out from behind the clouds for an extra minute?

How can you even know it would have been warmer? It may have been colder since we don't have a 100% accurate model. :sarcmark:
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby assateague » Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:51 pm

Too bad you thought your past was sarcasm, because it was 100% accurate.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:13 pm

assateague wrote:Too bad you thought your past was sarcasm, because it was 100% accurate.

So basically, you reject that insulation always insulates because we lack sufficient scientific knowledge to answer the question on whether or not impeding heat transfer will increase the temperature difference across that medium.

We know the sign. We do not know the magnitude.

100/0 not 50/50.

Same reason you know to close the doors in the winter.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby assateague » Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:41 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:It is simple physics that is not in question. Now, it could be 0.001C warmer or 1.0C warmer, but it is greater than zero. It's like adding insulation to your house. It ALWAYS makes it warmer. Now, if you leave all the doors and windows open, you will not notice. If it is the primary cause of heat loss from your house, it will make a big difference. Of course, if you add the insulation and then have a cold winter, your heating bill could still go up, but that doesn't prove it did nothing. You have to know what the bill would have been without adding it to judge the impact.



I missed the part where you said "insulation always insulates". What you said was "insulation always makes it warmer". And it doesn't.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:17 pm

assateague wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:It is simple physics that is not in question. Now, it could be 0.001C warmer or 1.0C warmer, but it is greater than zero. It's like adding insulation to your house. It ALWAYS makes it warmer. Now, if you leave all the doors and windows open, you will not notice. If it is the primary cause of heat loss from your house, it will make a big difference. Of course, if you add the insulation and then have a cold winter, your heating bill could still go up, but that doesn't prove it did nothing. You have to know what the bill would have been without adding it to judge the impact.



I missed the part where you said "insulation always insulates". What you said was "insulation always makes it warmer". And it doesn't.

Other variable clearly can be more important. Only the non-scientific environmental-as-a-religion people are saying otherwise.

The effects can be additive, they can partially offset, they can completely offset, or they can totally overwhelm the effects of more CO2.

And I just reject the notion that there is no doubt that warmer, whatever the cause, is definitely a negative, let alone likely that it is a catastrophic negative. I think the evidence suggests that warmer on net is probably positive for quite a bit of warming. Granted in a purely static climate where farmers blindly plant the same crops they always did, etc. where no one adapts. This is of course silly because we see the huge mass human migrations that have resulted from technology changes. People are very adaptive and will adapt and plant the right crops for the climate and if that means we grow avocados in Anchorage, well then that's what we ill do and make the best of it, whatever that means, which will reduce the effect of the negative impacts and enhance the effects of the positive impacts. Nobody's model includes human adaptation in an accurate way. We have a far worse record at that than we do at predicting weather month out.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby Jarbo03 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:32 pm

As long as people are subsidized, we will not adapt in the proper way for sustainability. Crops are being grown in many places where they never had before. Subsidies and technology are the reasons why, there is now corn being grown in western KS, the majority of irrigated stuff even has poor yields.



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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:02 pm

Jarbo03 wrote:As long as people are subsidized, we will not adapt in the proper way for sustainability. Crops are being grown in many places where they never had before. Subsidies and technology are the reasons why, there is now corn being grown in western KS, the majority of irrigated stuff even has poor yields.
Agreed. Get rid of the subsidy on wind and we will get to something that uses our current resources more efficiently. My point was that, people will adapt. Granted, I should have caveated it with unless governments prohibit it or force us in a negative direction. That is a far greater risk that has killed far more people than more CO2 ever will. Bad government is a proven killer of hundreds of millions. Too much CO2 will never rise to anywhere close to the risk of bad governments. Ironically, the CO2 paranoid have no fear when it comes to the risk of bad government :huh:
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby Jarbo03 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:52 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Jarbo03 wrote:As long as people are subsidized, we will not adapt in the proper way for sustainability. Crops are being grown in many places where they never had before. Subsidies and technology are the reasons why, there is now corn being grown in western KS, the majority of irrigated stuff even has poor yields.
Agreed. Get rid of the subsidy on wind and we will get to something that uses our current resources more efficiently. My point was that, people will adapt. Granted, I should have caveated it with unless governments prohibit it or force us in a negative direction. That is a far greater risk that has killed far more people than more CO2 ever will. Bad government is a proven killer of hundreds of millions. Too much CO2 will never rise to anywhere close to the risk of bad governments. Ironically, the CO2 paranoid have no fear when it comes to the risk of bad government :huh:



True. I'm all for renewable cheap energy resources. Just don't make me go broke in the meantime, plus I don't want my money given to energy companies in the name of research and science.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby assateague » Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:17 pm

I'm with Spinner- whether more warming is a net positive or negative, I don't care- I'd like to try it for a few years and see, dammit. I hate being cold.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby beretta24 » Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:14 pm

I'll take warmer too. Maybe MN can become the new LA or TX for the fall migration. :grooving:
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby dudejcb » Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:31 pm

Jarbo03 wrote:Glaciers formed the landscape here in NE KS also. This area I hunt in western KS is full of sharks teeth and marine fossils, in 2010 a 10 ft shark fossil was found. Earth has been going through crazy changes for its whole existence, it's not gonna stop because we are here.

Image

Image

I think Kansas was a former ocean bed as evidenced by the fossils you describe and the chalky limestone cliffs in your pictures.

Glacial formations look like Yosemite, Wisconsin, and almost all of Canada east of the Rockies.

Nonetheless, very cool country. Do you have chukar in them thar hills too, cuz that looks quite similar to some of the chukar country out here...relatively flat sage and grass mesa's/benches/ridges that fall away in steep canyons.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby nitram » Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:01 pm

One would think, given the never ending clamor from Democrats concerning global warming and “racism,” that similar sentiments would be felt among the majority of Americans. But progressives don't live in reality; instead, they resort to conjured up faux issues that make for good drama, but don't resonate with acute problems (case in point, this week's climate slumber party). In fact, according to a new Gallup poll, among the top 15 concerns asked of recipients, climate and race relations rank last on the list, respectively. Only 24% worry about climate change a great deal, compared to 51% who have marginal or no concerns. And regarding race relations, a mere 17% worry a great deal, while 56% have little or no concern – though perhaps that figure should be higher considering it's Democrats who keep playing the race card.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby Jarbo03 » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:19 pm

dudejcb wrote:
Jarbo03 wrote:Glaciers formed the landscape here in NE KS also. This area I hunt in western KS is full of sharks teeth and marine fossils, in 2010 a 10 ft shark fossil was found. Earth has been going through crazy changes for its whole existence, it's not gonna stop because we are here.

Image

Image

I think Kansas was a former ocean bed as evidenced by the fossils you describe and the chalky limestone cliffs in your pictures.

Glacial formations look like Yosemite, Wisconsin, and almost all of Canada east of the Rockies.

Nonetheless, very cool country. Do you have chukar in them thar hills too, cuz that looks quite similar to some of the chukar country out here...relatively flat sage and grass mesa's/benches/ridges that fall away in steep canyons.


Unfortunately no chukar in KS, this are is mostly pheasant, with quail, and lesser and greater prairie chickens. Not many canyons around here, a few small ones. Lots of rock bluffs in teh river valley, but most of the rock formations stick up in wide open prairie, mostly made up of fossils, shells, and coral from the past sea life. Great place to enjoy a beer after a day of hunting.

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This pic is the opposite direction of the pic of my dog.

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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby beretta24 » Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:03 pm

Aliens put that stuff in the second pic there...sure of it.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby nitram » Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:15 pm

While on a 7-hour drive, I had a chance to think about this subject quite a bit and how it's evolved to the front burner topic that dominated the headlines, especially on a slow news day. Therefore, I have a few questions to the 'warmers':

Where is the overwhelming scientific evidence that humans have changed the climate? If there was evidence humans had caused it, then there wouldn't be a debate. If there was evidence, you couldn't refute it. But there isn't any evidence that humans cause the climate to change. I don't believe anybody's disputing the climate changes. But we're not causing it. We don't have that power. We do not have the ability. And the proof is we can't fix it. We can't stop it once it's doing one thing or the other, warming or cooling. We can't stop it. So how can we cause it?

The other thing about global warming, and I think this is a fundamental point, but for this global warming argument that the left makes to work, there has to be an unquestioned truth, or assumption, and that is whatever was going on 10 years ago is normal and the way God intended or the way nature intended. At some point you have to be able to say, "This is the normal for planet Earth," so that you can measure warming or cooling. There's no evidence of what normal is. There hasn't been record taking long enough for anybody to say what is normal. Are the ice ages normal? Are Dust Bowls normal? Why are there shark fossils in Western Kansas?

We define normal based on our comfort. But is that what's normal? We don't know. The point is that if it's getting cooler we've got a problem, and if it's getting warmer we've got a problem. We just assume that at the moment in time that we happen to populate the planet it happens to be normal. There's so much wrong with that. Scientifically there's so much wrong. You can refute practically every claim made because every claim is political. You can refute it with logic. So I think when you have numerous, erroneous editorials espousing we're ruining the planet and we have to immediately stop and reverse our course, it's just a bit of evidence of how corrupt journalism school has become, how corrupt the left is. There just isn't any overwhelming scientific evidence that man causes it.

There is an attempt to make people believe it with contrived evidence. That's what the e-mails from the East Anglia University demonstrated, that the climate scientists are making it up. They are ignoring things that disprove their theory, and they're making up things that prove their theory. There isn't any science. The next thing that needs to be touted is, science is not consensus. Science is not up for a vote. It's not a political contest to win. But that's what it's become and I don't trust 'em. That's why I ask this question: Why is whether it's getting warmer or cooler political? That question alone (to me) ought to alert everybody that they're being caught up in a hoax.

People intrinsically hate politics, don't they? They like the goodies they get, but they don't like it. They don't think it's honest. They think they get screwed. Why, then, do they choose to believe certain elements of the industry they all despise? I don't know why Conservatives haven't been more vocal because, to me, it's so easy to refute it. I know we have scientists that are trying to refute it, and God bless them, if they could get any air time. But the people that support it are caught up in the emotion of it. They are accepting blame for causing it. And then they are accepting that carrot out there that they can be absolved for this sin if they agree to pay higher taxes and drive a clunky little car and whatever other price they have to pay, and give up some more of their freedom. I mean, to me, it's just so commonsensical. This is a farce, and that big question: How do we know what is normal? What kind of vanity do we have?

So we're gonna define "normal" by where we're most comfortable? Well, I'm sorry, that doesn't even work. There is no normal. There is no automatic, "This is the way it was intended to be." We don't know that. Just think of how long this planet has been in existence. Now how can any credible scientist take 10, 100, or even 1,000 years and say it's normal? I mean, how can .00001 be considered an acceptable sample of anything? How many human beings have walked this earth over however many years it's been here? Whatever you believe, where do we get off saying that in our 85 years of life expectancy is what's normal for the earth and that's the way it should be? We don't know that. We don't know that there even is a normal, because the climate of Planet Earth is in a state of constant flux. That's why every living thing on this glorious planet has either become extinct or will, and we can't do a damned thing about it.

Please just ponder this; Mt St. Helens spewed more CO2 into the earths atmosphere in a week than the U.S., Canada, and the European Union did in the following 12 years. We are still dealing with the effects (and will continue to) from the eruption in Iceland almost 4 years ago. Do you reckon the elevated CO2 levels over the past 4 years were influenced by Eyjafjallajokull? There are approximately 1,500 active volcanoes in the world today and while most are located in the Pacific Rim, they're in every continent of the world except Australia and Arctica. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... 2401,d.b2I. On average, 50-70 volcanoes erupt every year. They're constantly emitting greenhouse gases. Now how do we stop that?

So to me, any so-called evidence that it's getting warmer or cooler from that point is bogus. The whole thing is made up. Now they're inculcating all of this with Michelle's push into healthy foods, by determining how food is created, produced, grown, whatever. It's gotta be done in a "green" fashion. That's gonna raise prices. It's ostensibly gonna be healthier and so forth. But it's also gonna end up taking away food choice from people, and it's gonna raise prices like crazy. And it's all based on the presumption you don't know how to eat right; you don't know what's good for you. But it's really based on more than that. They just want to control every aspect of your life, and it's what they're aiming for. My grand-dad told me as a boy, "When the govt. controls the food, they'll control their subjects."

If you listen to the right Democrats -- John Kerry, BHO, -- they're out there and they are saying that climate change is the greatest existential threat facing the planet today. Now, there are some real violators. For example, India, the ChiComs, the Russians, Brazil, they are all huge polluters. Every one of those countries is worse in terms of CO2 emissions than we are, by far! What control do have over them? They also happen to be growing their economies at near record paces. CO2 emissions accompany economic growth, ya know? Are we willing to go to war with 'em if they don't cut back on their emissions? I mean, they're out there trying to make you think it's the greatest threat we face, other than the Tea Party. Now, you've got a bunch of people out there that are part of the greatest threat we face, climate change. Somebody ought to ask Kerry, "Are we ready to go to war, if it's this big a threat?" Just trying to make a point. All of this is just so trumped up, and it's all designed to scare the hell out of everybody, or at least the ones who won't take the time to really think about it.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby dudejcb » Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:10 pm

hi Spinner, err nitram.

who doesn't talk about the weather? have you taken any science classes? Are you familiar with the concepts like conservation of mass, conservation of energy, energy balance?

Ever heard of acid rain? How about mercury in most of our waters? Why do these things happen?

sounds like you wasted 7 hours thinking you were thinking while driving, but what you were really doing was trying to make evidence conform to your beliefs.
Last edited by dudejcb on Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding?
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby assateague » Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:16 pm

What a bunch of dolts. Tell me again how it was never "global warming", and that "climate change" was what they actually MEANT the whole time, and that it wasn't changed because the facts didn't fit with their precious models. Here's your very own high priest saying "it's WARMING, dummies". Too bad those ice caps aren't gone now, as he said was predicted. Too bad they're actually thicker than they've been in a long while. What a bunch of morons.



WOLVERINES

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Let a man vote to give himself a fish and he eats until society collapses.
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Re: How Man-Made Global Warming Rapes You

Postby dudejcb » Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:21 pm

fact of the matter is Assa, terminology changes as our experience and understanding changes and grows. Science is fluid that way, unlike "beliefs."

I think the new lingo is "climate variability," but what it all boils down to is hooter, colder, more violent (i.e., energy intense).

How're things over at the flat earth society?
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