Obamas State of the Union Speech

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:15 am

...and since we are discussing economics, I give you this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/hayek-keynes-economics-was-sideline-him

The entire world is on a Keynesian train wreck. Their is a reason why; if you can dig through the propaganda and BS spewed out by it's followers...
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:09 am

Indaswamp wrote:good lord spinnerman, READ! The topic of EQUITY financing is a whole different tangent of a topic and yes, it DOES depend on the monetary system used. Believe it or not, there is such a system as an equity system of money. Sadly, it is squashed by the international bankers every time it is tried because it negates their existence. It is their kryptonite.

It wouldn't have help the Chinese central planners or the U.S. central planners avoid misallocate resources. You posted a claim that China is failing because of debt. Yet we all know that central planners always fail. So to not consider the role plaid by the central planners misallocating resources, is not a serious consideration of what is going wrong. If we know central planning is going to fail and we central planning fail, it may not be the reason in that particular case, but there is a very good chance that it is a major contributor if not the dominant factor.

http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-pictures-of-chinese-ghost-cities-2013-3?op=1
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:47 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:good lord spinnerman, READ! The topic of EQUITY financing is a whole different tangent of a topic and yes, it DOES depend on the monetary system used. Believe it or not, there is such a system as an equity system of money. Sadly, it is squashed by the international bankers every time it is tried because it negates their existence. It is their kryptonite.

It wouldn't have help the Chinese central planners or the U.S. central planners avoid misallocate resources. You posted a claim that China is failing because of debt. Yet we all know that central planners always fail. So to not consider the role plaid by the central planners misallocating resources, is not a serious consideration of what is going wrong. If we know central planning is going to fail and we central planning fail, it may not be the reason in that particular case, but there is a very good chance that it is a major contributor if not the dominant factor.

http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-pictures-of-chinese-ghost-cities-2013-3?op=1

Yes, it will fail. But not immediately. What looks like wealth to the average joe on the street-even here in america-is the result of massive debt accumulation, a lot of which has not been for productive investment. Definitely not on the scale of china's ghost cities though.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:42 pm

Here is the economic increase from debt Spinnerman:
Image
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/us-household-debt-climbs-by-most-since.html

Do have a look at the Mortgage delinquency rate increases....
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:18 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:good lord spinnerman, READ! The topic of EQUITY financing is a whole different tangent of a topic and yes, it DOES depend on the monetary system used. Believe it or not, there is such a system as an equity system of money. Sadly, it is squashed by the international bankers every time it is tried because it negates their existence. It is their kryptonite.

It wouldn't have help the Chinese central planners or the U.S. central planners avoid misallocate resources. You posted a claim that China is failing because of debt. Yet we all know that central planners always fail. So to not consider the role plaid by the central planners misallocating resources, is not a serious consideration of what is going wrong. If we know central planning is going to fail and we central planning fail, it may not be the reason in that particular case, but there is a very good chance that it is a major contributor if not the dominant factor.

http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-pictures-of-chinese-ghost-cities-2013-3?op=1

Yes, it will fail. But not immediately. What looks like wealth to the average joe on the street-even here in america-is the result of massive debt accumulation, a lot of which has not been for productive investment. Definitely not on the scale of china's ghost cities though.

But if that debt went to productive investments, would there be a problem? :no:

Regardless of how the money is acquired to be spent, the only thing that matters is whether or not what it is spent on is more valuable than what it cost. If it is $100k in student loans on a degree that increases your average income by $1k/yr, you just pissed away a lot of resources. That's an entertainment expense and not an investment. But don't worry, you deserved that 4 years of partying and Obama will take care of your tab, somebody will, why should you, it's not like you are an adult or anything until you are at least mid 40's.

Politicians with confiscated resources taken by printing money piss the highest fraction away. Politicians with borrowed resources are next. Politicians with actual taxed resources are third, but still piss away huge fractions of it. Borrowed resources by banks and individuals is probably next but far behind how badly the politicians waste any resource they get their hands on, but it varies a lot with the individual and their mindset. Resources given to you or otherwise felt as undeserving is third, And your hard earned wealth, is guarded most tightly.

Correlation does not equal causation. And there is definitely a correlation between spending on credit, especially government credit and pissing away resources.

The problem is that people fund beer parties on credit. People stopping funding beer parties on credit does not hurt the economy. Sure a lot of people buy into the Keynesian theories that suggest that it does. It does not. Those resources that would have been spent on the beer party will go to something. Something more valuable and productive. They will not cease to exist, as they would have if pissed away. It is not the debt that is the problem. It is what that debt financed that matters.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:13 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:good lord spinnerman, READ! The topic of EQUITY financing is a whole different tangent of a topic and yes, it DOES depend on the monetary system used. Believe it or not, there is such a system as an equity system of money. Sadly, it is squashed by the international bankers every time it is tried because it negates their existence. It is their kryptonite.

It wouldn't have help the Chinese central planners or the U.S. central planners avoid misallocate resources. You posted a claim that China is failing because of debt. Yet we all know that central planners always fail. So to not consider the role plaid by the central planners misallocating resources, is not a serious consideration of what is going wrong. If we know central planning is going to fail and we central planning fail, it may not be the reason in that particular case, but there is a very good chance that it is a major contributor if not the dominant factor.

http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-pictures-of-chinese-ghost-cities-2013-3?op=1

Yes, it will fail. But not immediately. What looks like wealth to the average joe on the street-even here in america-is the result of massive debt accumulation, a lot of which has not been for productive investment. Definitely not on the scale of china's ghost cities though.

But if that debt went to productive investments, would there be a problem? :no:


disagree... it depends on if that debt is rolled up, chopped up, and levered up through the derivatives market to 100 times the value of the underlying asset backing the original loan. Then most certainly it is a problem. BTW-that is what blew the world up in 2007-08. Naked credit creation is the problem. It produces explosive profits on the upside, but massive default and financial destruction on the down side. Unless you have a captive central bank to bail you out. You know, heads I win, tails you loose....

Regardless of how the money is acquired to be spent, the only thing that matters is whether or not what it is spent on is more valuable than what it cost. If it is $100k in student loans on a degree that increases your average income by $1k/yr, you just pissed away a lot of resources. That's an entertainment expense and not an investment. But don't worry, you deserved that 4 years of partying and Obama will take care of your tab, somebody will, why should you, it's not like you are an adult or anything until you are at least mid 40's.

Politicians with confiscated resources taken by printing money piss the highest fraction away. Politicians with borrowed resources are next. Politicians with actual taxed resources are third, but still piss away huge fractions of it. Borrowed resources by banks and individuals is probably next but far behind how badly the politicians waste any resource they get their hands on, but it varies a lot with the individual and their mindset. Resources given to you or otherwise felt as undeserving is third, And your hard earned wealth, is guarded most tightly.

Correlation does not equal causation. And there is definitely a correlation between spending on credit, especially government credit and pissing away resources.

The problem is that people fund beer parties on credit. People stopping funding beer parties on credit does not hurt the economy. Sure a lot of people buy into the Keynesian theories that suggest that it does. It does not. Those resources that would have been spent on the beer party will go to something. Something more valuable and productive. They will not cease to exist, as they would have if pissed away. It is not the debt that is the problem. It is what that debt financed that matters.

blowing asset bubbles is not productive investment, but that is exactly the policy of the FED.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:40 pm

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby TomKat » Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:45 pm

10,000 views!!! I love it!!!!!
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby cartervj » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:29 pm

Indaswamp wrote:No people, housing is NOT recovering...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-18/housing-set-lift-spoiler-alert-no
Image



scary bad
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:33 am

Hmmm....wonder where dhunt ran off too. He was so much fun.... :sarcmark:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:00 am

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:32 am

The real state of the union. The Federal government is so essential and needs to be enlarged that it was shutdown a high fraction of the time this fiscal year and nobody noticed. Damn that Cruz for causing such harm.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/18/for-federal-employees-office-often-closed-25-of-fi/
Image
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:08 pm

$31 Trillion......and counting......of running stimulus spending, yet we are still limping along. Anyone remember the the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and what it was suppose to do? I would laugh if it were not so sad.

Image

Yet, Keynesians clamor that more needs to be done, yet won't give anyone a hard figure on when enough is enough. Let me clue you in-you can't fix a solvency crisis with debt. Period.

http://stawealth.com/daily-x-change/1957-5-years-later-what-did-the-arra-achieve.html
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:21 am

I'll just put this here:
Since 1968 Money has become irrelevant. Forget M1,M2, M3 MZM etc. What matters now is CREDIT. We are in an uncharted era of Creditism.

Under Capitalism, the economic growth dynamic was driven by Investment and Savings.
Under Creditism, it is driven by Credit Creation and Consumption.
Creditism has created unprecedented prosperity around the world, but...
It's on the verge of collapse because the private sector cannot bear any more debt.
The Austrian economists believed that economic cycles are driven by credit expansion; and that economic booms end in depressions when the credit ceases to expand. They were right!


and this...
According to Duncan, the global economy faces cataclysmic crises in the wake of an emerging economy based on “creditism” rather than capitalism. Duncan said, “The biggest impediment the world faces in overcoming this crisis is the broadly held misconception that we are operating in a capitalist system.”

Over the past 43 years, economies across the globe have undergone critical transformations. Here in America, the role of the Federal Reserve is largely responsible for many of these dynamic changes.

The system of credit colliding with surging consumption rates across the globe has evolved capitalistic philosophy into what Duncan is calling “creditism.”

With the system of credit dominating global economies, debt deflation may be the real culprit behind the recessions and depressions plaguing the global financial community.

In his new book, “The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy”, Duncan addresses this time-sensitive issues where the stakes are grand.

Recognizing that the world operates on a different set of rules from the laissez-faire capitalism of the 19th century is among the key arguments in Duncan’s 2012 book, “The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy.”



Global policy makers are running out of time to take advantage of opportunities offered up by the new system to help resolve the crisis, or otherwise face sliding into a corrosive period of economic contraction and rising geopolitical tensions, he said.

“The danger is that this new economic paradigm will collapse through debt deflation,” Duncan said.

As the new economic system continues to grow and change, Duncan recommends utilizing the system by borrowing money at the government level “at very low interest rates and then invest that money and change our world for the better.”

What was once money has become 'credit' since the value of the dollar depleted when it lost its power of being backed by gold.

Capitalism is Dead and Creditism Killed it
So yes spinnerman-no credit expansion= no growth.....

***edit to add:
He's right about CREDIT/DEBT deflation. This is why the government has been injecting Trillions into the markets and why the FED bought up Trillions in securities. I don't necessarily agree that more is better though, but he is spot on about the premise of CREDIT/DEBT deflation. Go look at the total credit graphs I've posted previously.

And the argument he makes on solar is a side issue, don't get distracted from the main point Spinner! :lol3:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:47 am

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Thu Feb 20, 2014 6:37 am

Indaswamp wrote:So yes spinnerman-no credit expansion= no growth.....
But don't your graphs show that we have had no credit expansion for several years and we have still had some growth :huh:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:38 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:So yes spinnerman-no credit expansion= no growth.....
But don't your graphs show that we have had no credit expansion for several years and we have still had some growth :huh:

the government stepped in and filled the gap....
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:40 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:So yes spinnerman-no credit expansion= no growth.....
But don't your graphs show that we have had no credit expansion for several years and we have still had some growth :huh:

the government stepped in and filled the gap....

Because Keynesian economics works. :no:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:45 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:So yes spinnerman-no credit expansion= no growth.....
But don't your graphs show that we have had no credit expansion for several years and we have still had some growth :huh:

the government stepped in and filled the gap....

Because Keynesian economics works. :no:

What the gov. is doing is not true 'keynesian economics', but I digress...
Throwing 31 Trillion(and counting) at the problem did not fix anything, only compounded the correction needed. If you take the money thrown at the problem, and compare that to the "growth" achieved from it, it ain't much bang for the buck.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby clampdaddy » Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:58 pm

TomKat wrote:10,000 views!!! I love it!!!!!

Why? Is that like some kind of blogger street cred?
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Glimmerjim » Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:46 pm

clampdaddy wrote:I didn't watch. Had something way more fun to do. Went out in the garage and cleaned a gun. Also managed to whack my finger with a hammer. I guess I actually did two things that were more enjoyable.

You need an editor, cd. You obviously meant you went and whacked your hammer with your fingers. No big deal...just a typo! :lol3:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby TomKat » Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:50 pm

clampdaddy wrote:
TomKat wrote:10,000 views!!! I love it!!!!!

Why? Is that like some kind of blogger street cred?

It makes me feel good to know that my fellow Americans care that much about their President and our country. Its odd that you would need to ask that.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Glimmerjim » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:13 pm

TomKat wrote:
clampdaddy wrote:
TomKat wrote:10,000 views!!! I love it!!!!!

Why? Is that like some kind of blogger street cred?

It makes me feel good to know that my fellow Americans care that much about their President and our country. Its odd that you would need to ask that.

Unfortunately TK, I think in this forum the popularity of this thread is based more upon a desire to find justification from like-minded individuals than in trying to ascertain a real non-biased perspective on the subject at large, I say this without even addressing the topics at hand. There is just a rabid fervor expressed here to denigrate and castigate every move Obaa makes. If a platform can be founf that lends credence to that perspective, there is going to be a long line of those who agree, whether they understand the essential conceps or not.
I fully agree with you buddy that an involvement is a positive thing. The vast majority Americans have been so isolated frorm global strife for so long that we have become that of which we have often been accused....shallow minded consumers manipulated by a Wall Street mechanism for so long that we care more about the price of a Gucci bag than what our local representatives are willing to stand and fight for. That has been the genus of the wealth inequality gap.
I appreciate your perspectives, TK, and I have a difficult time articulatimg mine at times. I simply feel that the majority of those who dominate the threads here are of like mind, and there is no search for a truth. There is a devoted search for proving obscure, controversial minutia to a self-annointed victory in the debate, with little actual soul searching as to what is best for mankind.
End of my philosophical speculations. Have at em!
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby assateague » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:35 pm

Glimmerjim wrote:. There is just a rabid fervor expressed here to denigrate and castigate every move Obaa makes.



Was this a Freudian slip? It does sound remarkably like a sheep.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby clampdaddy » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:46 pm

Glimmerjim wrote:
clampdaddy wrote:I didn't watch. Had something way more fun to do. Went out in the garage and cleaned a gun. Also managed to whack my finger with a hammer. I guess I actually did two things that were more enjoyable.

You need an editor, cd. You obviously meant you went and whacked your hammer with your fingers. No big deal...just a typo! :lol3:


If I could justify calling it a hammer, I wouldn't be turning wrenches for a living. :lol3:
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