Obamas State of the Union Speech

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:43 pm

Tricky indeed. “It would be a serious blunder to neglect the fact that inflation also generates forces which tend toward capital consumption,” Mises wrote in Human Action. “One of its consequences is that it falsifies economic calculation and accounting. It produces the phenomenon of illusory or apparent profits.


Look around dhunt..... :hi:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-21/central-bankers-inflation-god%E2%80%99s-work
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:55 am

and about Rome...posting this for dhunt:
"Rome lived upon its principal till ruin stared it in the face. Industry is the only true source of wealth, and there was no industry in Rome. By day the Ostia road was crowded with carts and muleteers, carrying to the great city the silks and spices of the East, the marble of Asia Minor, the timber of the Atlas, the grain of Africa and Egypt; and the carts brought out nothing but loads of dung. That was their return cargo."

Winwood Reade, The Martyrdom of Man


With the trade deficit, all the countries exporting to the US bring back IOU's which continuously loose value....i.e. dung.... :hi:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:14 pm

From the NBER to dhunt with hugs and kisses.... :lol3:
years of 2.0% 'trend' growth for the US are over...
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:37 pm

Boom...punchline hits about a minute 30 seconds in....


h/t Market ticker
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby cartervj » Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:25 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-28/stocks-close-new-record-high-russian-invasion-gdp-decline-and-pending-home-sales-mis


Stocks Close At New Record High On Russian Invasion, GDP Decline And Pending Home Sales Miss
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2014 16:04 -0500

Chicago PMI Gross Domestic Product NASDAQ Ukraine


With the Ukraine now openly appealing to the world to halt what in its own words is a Russian invasion, it only made sense that after the bigger than expected downward revision to Q4 GDP, and the miss in Pending Home Sales, that the S&P would close at a new all time high. Oh, there was that surge in the Chicago PMI which confirmed that the February weakness across all other data was not due to the weather, and which is all that the market decided to focus on.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:22 pm

^^^^Welcome to the 'new normal'.....where bad news is good news for this irrational market. Only thing that matters is whether FED support continues with QE; and crappy economic news means QE to infinity, and the stock market soars.... :rolleyes: :fingerhead:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby cartervj » Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:59 pm

Indaswamp wrote:^^^^Welcome to the 'new normal'.....where bad news is good news for this irrational market. Only thing that matters is whether FED support continues with QE; and crappy economic news means QE to infinity, and the stock market soars.... :rolleyes: :fingerhead:



yea but for the masses, simply skimming over the good news is enough :thumbsup:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:55 am

Here ya go Spinnerman...
From Capitalism to Creditism Feb 27 2014 PDF 2014-03-02 00-52-49.png


have a look at this:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/209600474/From-Capitalism-to-Creditism-Feb-27-2014-PDF

No growth in credit= no growth in the economy.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:40 am

OR
No growth in the economy= no growth in credit.

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And as we all know

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:08 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:OR
No growth in the economy= no growth in credit.

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And as we all know

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pssst...hey spinnerman, go study John Law in France.... :hi:
Easy, look at the exponential take off after the dollar was untethered from gold in 1971 by Nixon. Credit is possible under a gold standard, but there is a limit, much more so than under a straight fiat currency.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:01 am

Yet we had pretty good economic growth before then, but debt didn't grow as fast.

So doesn't that suggest correlation is not causation in this case? :huh:

Shouldn't we a break after 1971?

If anything growth has declined because we don't get the boom after the bust, which is more the growth in government than anything. It's the government "helping" by doing the wrong thing. Reagan didn't help the way Dems would like and we got a boom. Obama "helped" and we got a whimper and not a rebound.

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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby aunt betty » Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:49 am

Capitalism is the best system there is for economics.
If the government would quit "fixing" things and let economics run its course we'd rebound and flourish.
Not saying it would be painless but it would be the most efficient way.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:31 pm

Spinnerman, you fail to see how the exponential growth in credit across all sectors of the economy since 1971 has impacted growth. That credit growth has stopped. It will not resume to the same level it was because the consumer is tapped out and the pyramiding of debt from home equity extractions has ended. Government stepped in to fill the gap of credit deflation, it is not enough, and the gov. can't grow the economy with this practice. Credit is the economic driver... when it contracts, we get a crash. When it expands, we get a boom. Does not matter how that credit comes about, whether it is for investment or consumption...though one is real growth and is sustainable, the other is not.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:42 pm

So what was the economic driver before all this credit? We did just fine before that, but nope, can't do it any more. We are tapped out.

What happens if they slash regulations? What happens if places like New York that are banning fracking, open up their markets. What if they let them build the pipelines and infrastructure to maximize the value of our new found energy and give us access to more of the Canadian energy? If we went back to the pro-business and therefore pro-growth mindset and reject this spread the wealth around crap that promotes protecting what you have and trying to take what others have got and nobody trying to simple produce more at a lower price than the competition which is how we get real growth and real quality of life improvements?

Repeal Obamacare, slash regulations, slash government spending, stop printing money, sorry, we are tapped out and real no growth :sarcmark:

But yes, if we do all that, I'm sure credit will expand since everything will expand.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:54 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:So what was the economic driver before all this credit? We did just fine before that, but nope, can't do it any more. We are tapped out.

What happens if they slash regulations? What happens if places like New York that are banning fracking, open up their markets. What if they let them build the pipelines and infrastructure to maximize the value of our new found energy and give us access to more of the Canadian energy? If we went back to the pro-business and therefore pro-growth mindset and reject this spread the wealth around crap that promotes protecting what you have and trying to take what others have got and nobody trying to simple produce more at a lower price than the competition which is how we get real growth and real quality of life improvements?

Repeal Obamacare, slash regulations, slash government spending, stop printing money, sorry, we are tapped out and real no growth :sarcmark:

But yes, if we do all that, I'm sure credit will expand since everything will expand.

You also discount the impact of the modern global economy...
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:58 pm

EVERY currency on the planet is devaluing...The Chinese were allowing the Yuan to appreciate, but that has changed. The Yuan was the sure bet carry trade investment of the bankers. There are billions in OTC derivatives that have been LEVERAGED. Meaning when those bets turn, it's exponential losses. If the Chinese gov. continue devaluing the Yuan, TSHTF quickly for those bets.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby cartervj » Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:28 pm

Christopher Rugaber's dispatch on the ADP report leaned heavily on report presenter Mark Zandi's statements in the conference call shortly after the report's release, except for one thing: He chose not to relay Zandi's description of the news as "somewhat disappointing." Rugaber also ignored most of the prior-period revisions, even though he asked Zandi a question about them during the call (bolds are mine throughout this post):

A private survey shows that U.S. companies added slightly more jobs in February than in the previous month, but harsh winter weather still weighed on hiring.
Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that businesses added 139,000 jobs last month, up from only 127,000 in January. But January's figure was revised sharply lower from an original estimate of 175,000.
The data suggests that the government's jobs report for February, to be released Friday, will show only modest gains. Economists forecast it will show that employers added 145,000 jobs last month. That is below the average gains of nearly 205,000 jobs a month in the first 11 months of last year.

The ADP numbers cover only private businesses and often diverge from the government's more comprehensive report. In January and December its initial figures were much higher than the official count. The Labor Department said employers added 113,000 jobs in January and just 75,000 in December.
The other three downward revisions included the following:
- December went from 227K to 191K.
- November went from 289K to 245K.
- October went from 206K to 196K.

That's a combined 90,000 in reductions beyond January's 48,000 (175K minus 127K).

Josh Boak's AP report on the ISM index was reasonably measured, until he got to his selection of which respondent's comment to use:

U.S. service companies expanded more slowly in February as hiring levels declined in a cautionary sign for the economy coming out of winter.
The Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday that its service-sector index fell to 51.6 from 54 in January. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.
But the harsh winter weather posed challenges. The real estate, retail, hotel, food services and construction industries all contracted last month. And a measure for hiring plunged 8.9 percentage points to 47.5, evidence that many companies shed workers. It raises concern that the February jobs report the government will release Friday could disappoint.
"Risk of a Friday shock has risen," concluded Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The trade group's survey covers businesses that employ 90 percent of the workforce, including retail, construction, health care and financial services firms.
... Despite the downturn in employment, measures for new orders and production in the index both point to continued expansion.
"Economy still plugging along, but at a very slow rate of growth," said one firm interviewed for the survey.
The problem isn't the comment Boak quoted. It's the one he ignored.

"Health Care and Social Services" was among the categories in contraction in February. Until recently, health care was one of the few bright spots in a largely lackluster recovery. Now it's not. I wonder why?

One respondent quoted in the ISM report relayed their view, and quite strongly. Here's that person's statement, one which I believe Boak should have quoted:

"The Affordable Care Act is creating significant financial uncertainty to healthcare organizations. With little warning, the negative impact on revenue has been unprecedented."
Imagine that.

AP's quick removals of its stories about these reports from the highlight reel probably mean that you won't hear or see much about them in tonight's TV broadcasts. That's not an accident.




Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer ... z2v8qafYjK
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:33 pm

Massive layoffs in health insurance underwriting....
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:56 pm

Pssssst...hey dhunt...
A few weeks ago, William White (former economist at the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and Bank of International Settlements) made a frank admission.

And while we search for assets whose prices are less obviously distorted by malign government intervention, it’s refreshing to hear a mea culpa from a member of the economics “profession”.

White said:

The analytical underpinnings of what we [mainstream economists] do are actually pretty shaky. A reflection of that fact, is that virtually every aspect you can think of with respect to monetary policy, about best practice, has changed and changed repetitively over the course of the last 50 years. So, this stuff ain’t science.

“Think about what’s happened recently. One, its completely unprecedented. People are making it up as they go along. This is hardly science – building on the pillars of the past.

“Secondly, what they’ve been making up as they go along actually differs across central banks [The Bundesbank, for example, is fighting the threat of high inflation, whereas the Fed is more concerned about the prospect of deflation]. They can’t even agree amongst themselves about what’s the best way to do things.

I’m becoming more and more convinced that all of the models we use are basically useless.

“It’s surprising that we’ve had this huge crisis that the mainstream didn’t predict. It’s gone on for years, which the mainstream absolutely didn’t predict. I would have thought this was a basis for a fundamental rethink about what we used to think we believed. But that hasn’t happened.

“The policies that we’ve followed – on the monetary side at least – since 2007 are just more of the same demand-stimulating policies that we’ve been following, I think, erroneously, for the last 30 years.

We’ve got the potential to do so much harm by not getting the creation of fiat credit and money right. We’ve got the capacity to do so much harm that we should be focusing much more on making sure that doesn’t happen.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-03/former-central-banker-admits-they-are-making-it-they-go-along
Your appeals to authority are hilarious BTW.... :lol3:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:39 am

I'll add this here:
Plosser: “expectations on central banks have risen to unhealthy highs”
Posted on March 6, 2014 by Danielle Park

“Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser is “very worried” about the potential for unintended consequences of the Fed’s massive quantitative easing program. Plosser told CNBC that the U.S. was still suffering from “lasting effects” of the recession and “may never return” to its previous growth rates – and warned that policy should not bet on growth returning to previous rates, saying it could be “many, many years”.

http://jugglingdynamite.com/2014/03/06/plosser-expectations-on-central-banks-have-risen-to-unhealthy-highs/

Sub 2% GDP for the foreseeable future....
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:14 pm

Alas, in a world in which there is no longer even hope for growth without massive debt expansion, there is a cost to keeping global equities stable (and US stocks at record highs): that cost is $30 trillion, or nearly double the GDP of the United States, which is by how much global debt has risen over the same period. Specifically, total global debt has exploded by 40% in just 6 short years from 2007 to 2013, from "only" $70 trillion to over $100 trillion as of mid-2013, according to the BIS' just-released quarterly review.

It should come as no surprise to anyone by now, but the only reason why global stocks haven't plummeted since the Lehman collapse is simple: governments have become the final backstop for onboarding risk, with a Central Bank stamp of approval - in other words, the very framework of the fiat system is at stake should global equity levels collapse. The BIS admits as much: “Given the significant expansion in government spending in recent years, governments (including central, state and local governments) have been the largest debt issuers,” according to Branimir Gruic, an analyst, and Andreas Schrimpf, an economist at the BIS.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-09/global-debt-crosses-100-trillion-rises-30-trillion-2007-27-trillion-foreign-held
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby dhunt » Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:39 pm

Indaswamp, you really are a sad individual. No family? You spend so much time on this forum just copy/pasting right-wing blog posts. I shudder to think how much time you spend actually looking for the blog posts, reading them....and believing them.
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby assateague » Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:21 pm

Since you're back, how about addressing those revised GDP numbers you were so triumphantly touting? :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby assateague » Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:22 pm

I can't wait for the summertime demand for gas to go up, so I can start filling up cheaply. When's that supposed to happen again, around Memorial Day? :lol3:
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Re: Obamas State of the Union Speech

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:23 pm

assateague wrote:I can't wait for the summertime demand for gas to go up, so I can start filling up cheaply. When's that supposed to happen again, around Memorial Day? :lol3:

:lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
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