Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

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Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:58 pm

from +2.6% to a NEGATIVE 2.9%....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-25/gdp-disaster-final-q1-gdp-crashes-29-worst-2009-far-below-worst-expectations

Baltic Dry index is down 60% for the year...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-24/baltic-dry-index-down-60-year-date-worst-record

Of course, we will hear the echo chamber of 'over-supply' of ships rather than any 'under-demand' of actual aggregate product argument but the circularity of this argument is entirely lost on status quo huggers who viewed rising dry bulk commodity prices as indicative of growth (and built more ships) as opposed to the ponzi-financing scheme it really was... mal-investment writ large once again in a manipulated (and mismanaged) world.


Yep....

and don't expect Q2 to be any better....
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby ScaupHunter » Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:20 pm

Where is Dude when you need him for a truthing session? :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:

I am gonna say it for you Inda. You told us so. :beer:
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby cartervj » Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:30 pm

where's the so-called economist singing Obama's praises a few months back :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:33 pm

cartervj wrote:where's the so-called economist singing Obama's praises a few months back :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:

back under his rock I assume....
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:50 pm

and Carter- Goldman just upped their Q2 forecast from 3.8% to 4.0%..... :lol3: Not gonna happen. That will be revised down as well.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Rat Creek » Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:19 am

This GDP report cannot be correct. I have heard the democrat propaganda machine (media) repeat endlessly that we are in a recovery, and have been since the Recovery Summer of 2009. And the only reason it feels this bad for this long is because of Bush.

Am I the only one that notices that every economic indicator is revised in a detrimental way AFTER the initial report. Just more fraud from this worthless group of hacks. They will make an initial report of 270K new unemployment claims, then quietly revise it to 295K later. The Useful Idiots in the media will continue to repeat the first fraudulent number. :rolleyes:

No to worry though, the Useful Idiots who gave us this mess will still just look for the D after his name and celebrate him as an intellectual and brilliant leader. :mad:
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby aunt betty » Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:43 am

Govt. statistics are so flawed that they can't be used.

The way we measure things is backwards at times.
For instance unemployment... we should not be measuring unemployment insurance claims and using that to determine employment figures. It's flawed in that it only takes into account people who are collecting benefits, not the ones who no longer get benefits and it assumes they are employed which can be false.

The right way to measure employment would be to measure the tax dollars collected out of everyone's paycheck. You could extrapolate and get a number of how many people are working and paying into the system. NO WAY can we do that...it's to right and correct plus faking the numbers would be super obvious.
There obviously are better ways to measure how many people have jobs.

I suspect every statistic that we see posted online or in the news is arrived at by using the same scewed methodologies for the same reason...it's all lies.

83.67 % of statistics are just made up bs. :grooving:

@Indaswamp, who owns zero hedge? Bush #1 or Bush #2? (thing 1 or thing 2) :lol3:
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby SpinnerMan » Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:35 am

aunt betty wrote:83.67 % of statistics are just made up bs. :grooving:

:fingerpt:

83.67 % of people citing statistics are doing so simply to spread their BS. :yes:

Statistics have great value, IF, the ever giant IF, you are serious about understanding what they mean and more importantly what they do NOT mean. Most statistics can "improve" when things are moving in the wrong direction or the other way around.

The Ux (whatever the most commonly cited measure of unemployement) can be written as (Adult population - Adult population working - Adult population not looking for work) / (Adult population - Adult population not looking for work) or something close to that.

So there are three ways to get a lower number, which is usually considered better. 1. A smaller adult population, 2. more adults not looking for work, 3. more adults working. Only one of these 3 is actually a positive thing and the other two are arguably negative. Also it neglects hours worked, which can also give misleading results.

This has fallen since the housing bubble burst largely because the people not looking for work has grown as a fraction of the population. This is not a recovery. This is a move toward economic lethargy.

aunt betty wrote:The right way to measure employment would be to measure the tax dollars collected out of everyone's paycheck.
So one person paying $1,000,000 in taxes counts the same as 100 people pay $10,000 in taxes :eek: and all the people that are working but pay no taxes because of our silly complex system do not count at all :eek: :eek:

That's a terrible measure, sorry.

All statistics are flawed. All of them. The real problem we have is that we cannot trust the numbers. If the numbers that go into calculating the statistics are made up, they are garbage. Statisticians are scientists, but so are climatologists and too many of them look like political hacks and do not defend the integrity of their profession over the bidding of politicians and their political desires.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby ScaupHunter » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:28 pm

Well this is not being reflected in government. :hammer: :hammer: :hammer:

We just fired 3 Division Engineering Managers and moved their responsibilities under the remaining Engineering Division Senior Manager. Many of his regular duties will be devolving down to the Senior Engineers in each division. Many of their duties will be devolving down to the Engineers who work under them. I have to say I hate to see it and I am glad to see it at the same time. The municipality I work for is making the cuts necessary to match the reality of our budgets and the economic times. This is the third down sizing in our Department since the economic downturn started.

Yep, Obummer and his team stimulated us right into a long running economic depression. Frankly I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel despite a few hopeful signs.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby SpinnerMan » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:18 pm

Hey, this could be in large part Obamacare succeeding in bending the cost curve downward, sort of.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/gdps-obamacare-downgrade-1403738610

January saw the formal launch of the Affordable Care Act, and its attempt to transform U.S. health insurance and medical practice. So it's notable that a major cause of the sharp downward revision in first-quarter GDP was a decline in consumer spending on health care. Lower exports and investment also played a role, but the overall decline in health spending from the previous quarter was a startling 6.4%.


The decline is especially shocking given that the arc of health spending is always up. The explanation can't be that Americans suddenly had less demand for health care, or had a healthier winter. Our guess is that the turmoil caused by the disastrous ObamaCare rollout confused many consumers into delaying their health purchases. ObamaCare also caused millions of Americans to lose insurance they liked, and it no doubt took time for many to find new policies that suited them and they could afford.


BTW, my estimates of the impact of Obama's bad policies on the economy may have been underestimates.
During the 19 quarters since the current expansion began in June 2009, the economy has grown at an annual rate of 2.1%, compared to the 4.1% average in other expansions since 1960, and the 4.9% growth during the Reagan boom of the 1980s. Congress's Joint Economic Committee points out that to catch up with the post-1960 average, GDP would have to grow at 6.5% for the rest of President Obama's second term. The first quarter plunge suggests the economy would have to soar for the rest of the year even to grow by 2% for 2014.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:29 pm

Spot the odd one out...
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What's the odds we are not in a recession? :hi:

With all eyes firmly focused on yesterday's disastrous GDP report (and ultimately dismissing it as 'weather' and one-off exogenous factors), we thought Bloomberg Brief's Rich Yamarone's analysis of a lesser-known (yet just as key) indicator of the state of US economic health was intriguing. As he notes, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic analysis, there has never been a time in history that year-over-year gross domestic income has been at its current pace (2.6 percent) without the U.S. economy ultimately falling into recession. That’s more than 50 years of history, which is about as good as one could ever hope for in an economic indicator.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-26/has-never-happened-without-us-falling-recession
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:33 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:Hey, this could be in large part Obamacare succeeding in bending the cost curve downward, sort of.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/gdps-obamacare-downgrade-1403738610

January saw the formal launch of the Affordable Care Act, and its attempt to transform U.S. health insurance and medical practice. So it's notable that a major cause of the sharp downward revision in first-quarter GDP was a decline in consumer spending on health care. Lower exports and investment also played a role, but the overall decline in health spending from the previous quarter was a startling 6.4%.


The decline is especially shocking given that the arc of health spending is always up. The explanation can't be that Americans suddenly had less demand for health care, or had a healthier winter. Our guess is that the turmoil caused by the disastrous ObamaCare rollout confused many consumers into delaying their health purchases. ObamaCare also caused millions of Americans to lose insurance they liked, and it no doubt took time for many to find new policies that suited them and they could afford.


BTW, my estimates of the impact of Obama's bad policies on the economy may have been underestimates.
During the 19 quarters since the current expansion began in June 2009, the economy has grown at an annual rate of 2.1%, compared to the 4.1% average in other expansions since 1960, and the 4.9% growth during the Reagan boom of the 1980s. Congress's Joint Economic Committee points out that to catch up with the post-1960 average, GDP would have to grow at 6.5% for the rest of President Obama's second term. The first quarter plunge suggests the economy would have to soar for the rest of the year even to grow by 2% for 2014.

Debt saturation will do that to a credit dependent economy spinnerman.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:40 pm

and actually, if you look at the unmanipulated numbers, it is much worse..
GDP Annual Growth
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby ScaupHunter » Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:28 am

Yep, it has all been candy cane farts and pooping skittles for the last two years, it just magically happened that one quarter we had a downturn. Nothing to see here, move along. :hammer:
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:08 pm

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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:13 pm

Indaswamp wrote:and Carter- Goldman just upped their Q2 forecast from 3.8% to 4.0%..... :lol3: Not gonna happen. That will be revised down as well.
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well that didn't take long...
With all eyes firmly focused on the dismal Q1 GDP print and summarily dismissing it as 'noise', backward-looking, 'weather', and 'exogenous'; today's worrying spending data has sent the serial extrapolators among the sell-side economist herd scrambling to downgrade over-exuberant Q2 GDP expectations (five so far). One glance at this chart is all one needs to know about the "bounce back" in pent-up demand spending (that is not there). As Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey told Bloomberg, "Don’t start betting on those 3% GDP numbers yet." This only trumped Goldman Sachs 'oh-so-embarrassed-again' Jan Hatzius who slashed his exuberant 4% Q2 GDP growth estimate to 3.5% (for now).
Five so far...
Goldman Sachs: We reduced our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by five-tenths to 3.5%.

1. The May personal spending report was weaker than expected. Personal income grew +0.4% (vs. consensus +0.4%) in May. The core wages and salaries component grew 0.4%. Other personal current transfer receipts grew a strong +1.9%, related to the Affordable Care Act. Personal spending rose a smaller-than-expected +0.2% (vs. consensus +0.4%). Back-revisions to previous months reflected the large downgrade to Q1 healthcare spending found in yesterday's GDP revision. As a result of spending growing less quickly than income, the personal saving rate increased three-tenths to 4.8%.
2. The available data on healthcare spending in Q2 has not been consistent with the way we assumed the Commerce Department would continue to account for the Affordable Care Act, which would have resulted in a boost to growth.

Action Economics: Q2 GDP 2.5% from previous 3% expectation

Today's U.S. reports included an expected 0.4% personal income rise in May, but with asurprisingly weak spending trajectory through April and May that followed huge downward Q1 revisions revealed in yesterday's GDP report to leave a substantial downgrade in our growth estimates for Q2. We now expect a 2.5% (was 3.0%) real GDP growth rate in Q2 with an anemic 1.5% (was 2.7%) clip for real consumption as consumer caution has apparently increased.

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: "Don’t start betting on those 3% GDP numbers yet"

"Consumer spending was knocked back big from 3.1% to the slow-growth zone of 1% yesterday for the first quarter," he wrote in a note. "The second quarter bounce from the cold winter weather is not yet evident as spending is running just 1.2% through May. Don’t start betting on those 3% GDP numbers yet, but the report on July 30 will have the annual benchmark revision so the story could still change."

Barclays: 2.9% annualized Q2 growth, down from 4%

"On balance, this report suggests a more modest rebound in Q2 consumption growth following a softer Q1 than we had previously expected."

TD Ameritrade: cut to 3% from 3.6%.

"While there is plenty of scope for upside surprise on the inventory build and net exports on the quarter, the risks at this point tilt to 3.0% or lower rather than higher."

So it appears that Q2 GDP hope-fest is about to the same way as the over exuberant Q1 GDP expectations...
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:16 pm

Guest Post: Proof That Government Economic Numbers Are Being Manipulated

The Economist retells a conversation with Stephen Roach, who in the 1970s worked for the Federal Reserve under Chairman Arthur Burns. Roach remembers that when oil prices surged around 1973, Burns asked Federal Reserve Board economists to strip those prices out of the CPI "to get a less distorted measure. When food prices then rose sharply, they stripped those out too—followed by used cars, children's toys, jewellery, housing and so on, until around half of the CPI basket was excluded because it was supposedly 'distorted'" by forces outside the control of the central bank. The story goes on to say that, at least in part because of these actions, the Fed failed to spot the breadth of the inflationary threat of the 1970s.
I have a similar story. I remember a morning in 1991 at a meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's board of directors. I was welcomed to the lectern with, "Now it's time to see what Mike is going to throw out of the CPI this month." It was an uncomfortable moment for me that had a lasting influence. It was my motivation for constructing the Cleveland Fed's median CPI.

I am a reasonably skilled reader of a monthly CPI release. And since I approached each monthly report with a pretty clear idea of what the actual rate of inflation was, it was always pretty easy for me to look across the items in the CPI market basket and identify any offending—or "distorted"—price change. Stripping these items from the price statistic revealed the truth—and confirmed that I was right all along about the actual rate of inflation.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:31 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-28/crushing-q2-recovery-dream-1-simple-chart

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-28/q2-economic-hope-misses-point

When it comes to evaluating the underlying strength of the economy, one of the most important measures is the level of "final sales." While GDP measures total domestic production, final sales reflects the demand by consumers, businesses, and government. Since the economy is almost 70% driven by consumption this number is far more important in determining what is happening beneath the headline GDP report. The chart below shows real, inflation adjusted, final sales.

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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:29 pm

And dhunt wonders why I made the assertion that I did about numbers being revised down...

So US GDP contracted at a 2.9% annualized real rate in Q1 2014, a full 3% lower than had been originally guesstimated in April, as spending fell across pretty much every component of consumer, business, government and net exports. (Although, we should remember that even this final estimate will continue to be revised in retrospect by NBER over the next couple of years, and the historical revision bias has always been for lower, not higher numbers).



This is the kicker though-
So far, this is the biggest downward revision to initial forecasts since the data began being recorded in 1976. Also worth noting perhaps, US GDP quarterly declines at an annualized rate of more than 1.5% have never happened except during or leading into NBER-declared recessions since 1947.

Real world data like low labor participation, stagnant wages, anemic savings and still climbing debt levels all seem to corroborate the recessionary tone in GDP. So do things like shipping rates which have fallen 60% over the past 6 months, and are now vying for the lows reached in the recession of 2008. Bond yields too are putting up no argument, with the US 10 year treasury yield in the 2.55% range today, down from 3% at the start of the year.

Yet if you listen to the mainstream financial commentators who make high fees off of other people’s money when it is placed in the highest risk products that go up with the stock market–(and yes plunge with the stock market, but they will explain how that is not their fault when the lawsuits come…)–apparently we are only just started into a secular bull run which is set to continue for many more years from here. Wow! The evidence offered: “why stocks have gone straight up for nearly 2 years don’t you know! What in the world could ever cause them to do otherwise?”


anyone wanna bet against a recession?
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:44 pm

Do you think the Obama administration will allow the numbers for the next quarter to be anything but a positive number even if just 0.1%? I'll be shocked. Now after the midterms, they may revise the numbers or let it out that they changed definitions to ensure a positive number, but as long as it is close to zero, they will kick it in the hole.

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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:48 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:Do you think the Obama administration will allow the numbers for the next quarter to be anything but a positive number even if just 0.1%? I'll be shocked. Now after the midterms, they may revise the numbers or let it out that they changed definitions to ensure a positive number, but as long as it is close to zero, they will kick it in the hole.

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I don't give a flying :censored: what the obama administration wants.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:29 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:Do you think the Obama administration will allow the numbers for the next quarter to be anything but a positive number even if just 0.1%? I'll be shocked. Now after the midterms, they may revise the numbers or let it out that they changed definitions to ensure a positive number, but as long as it is close to zero, they will kick it in the hole.

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I don't give a flying :censored: what the obama administration wants.

What is a recession? The definition is 2 quarters of negative growth. That is the official definition. It is a flawed definition, but it is the official yardstick used to determine whether we are in a recession or not. So it does matter what Obama wants. If he will use the IRS, you think he won't use the BLS?

What yardstick will you use if someone accepts your wager? If we can use one I pick, I'll bet you whatever you want. BTW, I'll tell you which one I picked at the end of next quarter :wink:
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Indaswamp » Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:01 pm

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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Jul 11, 2014 5:58 am


Still not a recession.

If growth rate is anywhere near 0%, the administration that uses the IRS to hinder their political opponents and then destroys hard drives and every other thing we know they do or are capable of will not hesitate to use the BLS to ensure that it is >0% and there is no technical recession in an election year.

There is nothing surprising about this. The size of government is insane. The incentives to work are negligible for a large fraction of society. Everything we have done since 2007 is a drag on the economy.
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Re: Final Q1 GDP revision; -2.9%

Postby Rat Creek » Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:51 am

If you listen to and believe anything coming out of this administration, you are a complete fool. And that is not just the economic fraud, but everything from immigration to the IRS to Bengahzi, et al. In my lifetime, we have never had a worse example of a lying and inept leader. It is so bad, that I am becoming convinced he really is dead set on destroying America. No one can be this bad at their job.
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