Oil is it a weapon?

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Oil is it a weapon?

Postby olddkguide » Thu Jun 26, 2008 2:17 pm

Your thoughts on this. Has the muslim world finally found an effective weapon to bring us to our knees? Will our taste for foreign oil be our downfall? Oil is now forecast to top over $150 a barrel this year with no end in sight.
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Postby Rat Creek » Thu Jun 26, 2008 3:48 pm

Oil can definitely be used as an economic weapon and it is. When Bush 41 stated that freedom was based upon the free flow of oil at market prices, this is what he was talking about.

Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, the world runs on oil, not just for energy, but for all sorts of things. It is the key to economic freedom and national security.

If you don’t have oil, you don’t have freedom. Drill here, drill now.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Thu Jun 26, 2008 4:16 pm

Rat Creek wrote:Drill here, drill now.
Which I know you know, does not mean we stop research into alternatives for crude oil. Oil is too important to not do BOTH simultaneously.

I heard on a news show a couple days ago that they have created a bacteria that craps sulfur-free crude oil. This sounded credible. As you all know, I'm one of the biggest skeptics on the ability of future technology to deliver its promises. He really said the right things for developing a legitimate technology. It may all be BS, but it sounded promising. Maybe it will cost $1,000 per barrel. I don't know.

The so-called environmentalists will go absolutely nuts if they actually discovered a cheap, 100% renewable, carbon-neutral supply of crude oil. The hard core is not about making life better for the people, it's about eliminating the human blight on their mother earth God.

I do not think the Muslim countries have much of anything to do with this price spike. There has been no big reduction in output. The one problem is these are not privately run companies that respond to normal market forces. They just want to stay in power and hum along. They wouldn't even know what to do with the cash if they increased output. They wouldn't enrich their people. Unlike an evil corporations that have millions of shareholders through pension funds, 401(k)'s, etc. that would no exactly what to do with that extra money.

Don't forget Venezuela is a large oil producer that is in a state of huge political uncertainty. There oil output is likely to fall over the next decade unless Chavez disappears. Do we still have a CIA? China seems on a steady growth path. The U.S. has no interest in tapping it's own resources. Our economy and really the entire world economy is still solid. The collapse of the Soviet Union and specifically it's economy was in large part the reason for the long period of flat oil prices.

If the Olympics go as bad as I think they will in China, we could see huge instability in that country. It will take something like a collapse of the Chinese economy to collapse oil prices.
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Postby gadwall getter » Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:13 pm

i think it most certainly is a weapon. pretty much the muslims are setting up our execution!!! :mad: :mad: :mad:
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Postby fowlhunter » Fri Jun 27, 2008 7:14 am

I think there are alot more factors to it than just the middle east. You have to remember how many people in our government are getting richer. I'm not trying to say that they have blinders on because of their oil money, but until these high price hurt them their not going to be that concerned.
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Postby wackemstackem » Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:08 am

If the Olympics go as bad as I think they will in China, we could see huge instability in that country. It will take something like a collapse of the Chinese economy to collapse oil prices.[/quote]


When most everything we buy today comes from China(thanks china mart)I dont see their economy doing anything but getting stronger.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:44 am

That's what everybody is betting on in the oil market. If their economy keeps growing, then demand for oil will rise dramatically and production will have a tough time keeping pace for all the reasons we understand. That is definitely where people are putting their money.

My personal opinion is that they will not be able to handle the protests in a way that doesn't lead to greater political instability in China. We saw all the protests surrounding the Olympic torch. They have clearly been warned and they seem to have taken it seriously. They know the eyes of the world are on them and so do the protestors. I believe this will embolden the protestors. China's response could go one of two ways because they really aren't that bright.

They could appear too weak and embolden additional protests, internal political resistance, and destabilizing crackdowns after the Olympics. Probably the least precipituous and smoothest path to collapse of the government.

They could also just let their frustration with the protestors ignoring their authoritarian declarations boil over (like Waco and Elian Gonzalez under Janet Reno). They will tolerate and then over react. This will lead to large internal instability, world wide condemnation, and a more precipituous collapse of the government.

I really think the ability of the Chinese government to deal with the protests in a measured way that leaves them no weaker is low. However, they are not going to be caught off guard, and are preparing such as trying to keep protestors out of the country completely. We will see what happens.

China and all countries have to come into the modern world. The sooner the better. It reduces the chances of an ugly war. I hope they just let to much of the power of the Communist government slip away to the point when they try to reassert power, it fails without much bloodshed. They are trying to have it both ways. The economic benefits of freedom and the benefits to the ruling elite of communism. I believe it's doomed to fail and I think the Olympics will increase the pressure on the system collapse. I hope this does not collapse the Chinese economy. That's not really good for us and that is definitely not good for the Chinese. However, an economic collapse would reduce gasoline prices, but not as much as the overall cost of living would rise.
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Postby jehler » Fri Jun 27, 2008 4:45 pm

wackemstackem wrote:When most everything we buy today comes from China(thanks china mart)I dont see their economy doing anything but getting stronger.
You mean thanks U.S. Unions don't ya wackem :huh:
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Postby Cashman » Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:58 pm

just thought I would let you guys know, these are the countries that the U.S. imports oil from in order from greatest to least:

1. Canada
2. Mexico
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Venezuela
5. Nigeria
6. Angola
7. Iraq
8. Algeria
9. United Kingdom
10. Brazil

just thought I would let you know that not all the oil comes from the middle-east...
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Postby olddkguide » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:24 pm

The point here is not where we import oil from, but the oil rich nations of the middle east are artificially controlling the oil available to the market. The futures market is being inflated by restricting the output of crude. To say that the oil companies cannot keep up with demand is ridiculous. Oil consumption did not just double over night. A slow increase should be expected, but this entire situation is way out of control. I spoke with a man who just returned from Romania last week, gas there is over $10 a gallon. Do we just sit back and take this. I now understand the Boston Tea Party in a new way. I say oil is being used as a weapon. Control our economy and you control America. If you haven't noticed they are in control.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:49 pm

I really think we shouldn't demand that they produce more or less. We won't even allow our publicly-owned oil companies to produce more. Isn't it a bit hypocritical to demand another country produce more.

What we should demand is that instead of having government-owned oil companies that they become publicly-owned companies. I think we blew a huge opportunity in Iraq. Instead of turning the oil company over the new Iraq government, we should have set up several 100% publicly-owned oil companies and given shares in each of these newly created corporations to every Iraqi citizen living in Iraq.

Publicly-owned corporations will produce more oil when prices rise if they are permitted and capable. That's how they maximize the money they make for their shareholders. Maximum profit is why the shareholder invested their money in the company. Not for some political BS or to have cash to keep themselves in power by keeping the natives from growing too restless.

I do agree it doesn't matter where our oil comes from physically. An additional barrel is an additional barrel and has the same effect regardless of where it is produce. It is a world market and there is no separate price for Saudi oil versus Canadian oil, other than some differences in quality.
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Postby olddkguide » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:23 pm

I agree with most of what you said Spinner except the part about being hypocritical demanding more production. Its not that we are demanding more production. The Saudis currently have nearly 30 fully loaded tankers sitting just off shore. Why are they not in route to locations around the world? This is what I'm talking about when I say the market is being artificially manipulated. The longer they keep those tankers anchored the more than stand to profit in the current market. Venezuela, Brazil and Algeria have all reduced there oil production in the last 45 days. Can somebody please explain this to me.
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