Are you still in denial?

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Are you still in denial?

Postby don taylor » Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:39 am

Finally Bush does something right again. Its been a while since a SCOTUS appointment.

President Bush has ended his ban (executive) on offshore drilling on our continental shelf. That in effect caused the biggest drop in 17 years to the cost of a barrel of oil. This does nothing to add to our supply because congress still has a ban on it. We aren't getting a drop of oil today, but that announcement knocked $10 off a barrel. It literally started to fall as President Bush spoke. My question to you guys is this...

How many of you guys still are in denial that offshore drilling, shale oil extraction, and ANWR cannot immediately lower our prices?

I also can't wait to here how Bush just told his buddies in 'Big Oil' to lower the price to make him look good or some other leftist kook conspiracy theory. So make it a good one.
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Postby Greenhead Grappler » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:56 am

no complaints here. its been the main issue in debate as of late and i all for it.
as bush and others has said this is not a quick fix, it may take years but anything helps.

here are the complaints ive heard...
1.) Current oil companies dont have nearly the equipment and power to jump into this enough to make a difference.
2.) many say we already have hacked into like 79% of our oil, so we would just do more harm than good.

now i dont agree with this, I say drill before nobody but al gore and oprah can drive!
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Postby jaysweet3 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:21 am

I can only see the oil industry as a money maker for our country. If there is a shortage of equipment, then there is a big opportunity for someone to make a new industry or make one even bigger. Start building equipment and put people to work. Naysayers say that all of the ships that are used for drilling are scheduled for the next 6 years. Well lets build a few more, I bet the ship yards in Maryland and the gulf coast would like a new contract.

The only thing that scares me and kinda stings, is that a lot of the shale oil is located in the pothole regions. North Dakota, prime breeding grounds.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:54 am

What people don't understand about oil or any other commodity is that if you knew the price at some point in the future, then you would know the value today based on the acceptable rate of return on your investment.

If you assume the barrel of oil will be $250 ten years from now. You would make more money by buying a barrel of oil today and sticking it in your garage for 10 years than buying a CD. If you believe oil will be $500 per barrel ten years from now, you would make a lot more money buying oil today and holding it than any other investment out there.

When they talk about mismatches of supply and demand, they are not talking about mismatches today, but mismatch expected over time. Right now conventional wisdom is China and India are going to continue to grow and their demand will grow. The problem is that the U.S., Venezuela, Saudia Arabia, Iran, Russia, and many of the big oil producers show no signs of significant expansion in oil production. Therefore, the only way for supply and demand to stay in balance is a large rise in prices in the future. Therefore, the value of oil today rises dramatically because of the huge expected rise in the future.

Tell me where I am wrong? This is basic economics and just like gravity, you cannot change this fundamental relationship between expected prices in the future and the current value today.

The only sustainable solution is to drive down the expected prices in the future. All paths should be taken to do this. Increased profitably of drilling helps. Investment in technology helps. Stable governments in Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Iraq, etc. help. There is no reason we cannot work on all of them simultaneously. Drilling does not preclude any other alternative.

Increased margin requirements would help reduce the profitability of buying oil today via a loan. This would help reduce speculator demand today if we could impose the restriction worldwide, but unfortunately we cannot and most likely the traders would simply take their business to another country, which would hurt Americans that work for these companies.
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Postby dudejcb » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:20 pm

I don't think the oil bottleneck has been that we lack enough places to put holes in the ground... although that is how the argument is ususally framed.

Wasn't the big problem behind inadequate supplies at the pump related to refining capacity? If we need more holes in more places so badly, why haven't all those already awarded leases been developed? Kinda seems like a game of chicken going on, where oil companies simply won't develop what they already have available for development (or rebuild the necessary refining and distribution infrastructure) unless or until they have rights to put wells everywhere. and even then, why would they develop everything all at aonce and improve the refining and pipeline infrastructure if it only results in lower cost oil that carries less inthe way of profits?

and then come to find out that a large portion of the futures speculation that has driven up oil prices has been done by the participation of oil companies' traders... (I know it does sound a bit like I think there may some market manipulation going on. but that cannot be. No way. it's something else that sounds much better than manipulation and appeals to our freedom loving psyches.)

God don't you just love the "free market." Those especially critical markets where companies are free to act in ways that are in their best (most profitable) interests... even if that means the rest of us get gouged. What a country! Of course I'm being silly, this sort of thing doesn't happen... err, Bear Stearns, sub-prime mortgage crisis, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, '80's Savings & Loan debacle, etc. etc. etc... Nah, doesn't happen.
Last edited by dudejcb on Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby pennsyltucky » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:46 pm

oil price dropped but gas prices wont. when oil goes up, gas goes up the next day. when oil goes down, "well, it takes a month or so to see it at the pump..."

keep talkin about drillin. when im paying less than 3 bucks for diesel, u may have my attention. its 4.93 now, and i burn 50+ gallon a day
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Postby fenton_3 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:42 pm

Drill Here! Drill Now! We all know it is not a long-term solution, but it will keep the Middle East from controlling our economy through oil prices. Everyone wants to make a buck; we all know this! But America must gain independence from foreign oil or at least reduce our dependence in the short run. This will buy us time to rid our self’s of the these Muslims who want nothing more than to see the west fall as they begin to buy all of our companies. Think I am wrong? Just think of the all those boats loaded with oil coming over here. What do we send back? Well boats full of money! The Arabs who know the oil will run out; go back and buy into our economy. "see Citi bank capital injection" I am telling you that if we do not end this soon we will see a major wealth transfer for US to THEM.

Just think about it!
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Postby SpinnerMan » Wed Jul 16, 2008 5:32 pm

dudejcb wrote:If we need more holes in more places so badly, why haven't all those already awarded leases been developed? Kinda seems like a game of chicken going on, where oil companies simply won't develop what they already have available for development (or rebuild the necessary refining and distribution infrastructure) unless or until they have rights to put wells everywhere. and even then, why would they develop everything all at aonce and improve the refining and pipeline infrastructure if it only results in lower cost oil that carries less inthe way of profits?
Because not all leases pan out. Many of the leases turn out to be garbage with less oil or more costly than expected. No game of chicken, just a fact that there is not economic oil under ever lease. That was the risk they took. Should the government buy back these leases? I'll bet the oil companies would sell most of them back for what they paid for them.

I also believe these leases are not indefinite and they are use them or lose them. The unprofitable ones will simply expire. The profitable ones will be drilled.

As far as infrastructure investments, they only do this if it is profitable. The risks are generally just too great to attract investors. It's still their money. At least until Obama gets in charge.

The rest of your post is similar misinformation and half truths. For example, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae are just good old fashion government corruption. They are protected by the government from normal business practices. This is NOT the free market.
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Postby Rat Creek » Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:41 pm

The leases that the oil companies have that are not in current production are not unrestricted leases. I believe the vast majority, if not all, are for exploration only meaning they can explore the feasibility of the leases. If they discover something that looks promising, they have a terribly long and complicated process to follow in order to change their exploratory lease into one that allows production. In many cases, the regulatory stall process has been over a decade. In other words, more government regulation in the way.

So when you hear a congress person railing about why oil companies don’t just bring up oil from existing leases, the simple answer is they don’t have the right and these same congress people are standing in the way, and they know it.
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Postby CLUTCHfan » Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:44 pm

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Postby don taylor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:32 am

You have to love statements like "Put more holes more places." That kind of stuff you can't just find anywhere, people. You have to come here to get that. Words like that, fed to college kids, Voila! 24 year old liberal know it all is born. Your awesome dude. How do you get from drilling for the fuel that allows us to heat our homes to "more holes, more places"? In the end, with out oil consuption the use of all other sources would have to go up. Wait until it cost $1000 a month to heat the average guys home. Should we start to drill then?
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Postby jkkaywoo » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:31 pm

Off shore drilling will help. We will have our own supply freeing up some of the competition with China, India and Europe. Its also going to instantly effect Wall Street, which has more to do with the price of refined oil per barrel than the actual oil companies. The price of crude coming from Saudi Arabia has not seen a significant increase since the seventies. The royal family has no desire to make the US unhappy with them. Another problem with the oil industry, it is not a free market; it receives billions of dollars in subsidies per year, allowing set prices, and reducing competition. Yes they have quadrupled their revenue, but arguably not because of increase in gas price rather increase in demand in China and India. The oil companies know these high prices are actually bad for them in the long run in America, where alternative means of transportation is now being utilized, and reforms pushed for alternative fuels. These reforms and new innovations will quickly spread to the EU and China. Drilling is the answer for now, unfortunately its not the solution, as this is either way inevitable.
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Postby dudejcb » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:16 am

Don,

I'm able to make the incredible intellectual leap that connects the notions some have of drilling more holes more places and the magnificent benefit that will have on our energy costs... because I am a clairvoyant savant. It's a gift.

I also see dead people who don't even know they're dead. And of course, I see and talk with dumb people all the time who don't even have a clue how dumb they are... which can be very frustratiung and tiresome for your average CS's (no, not shicken chits--CLAIRVOYANT SAVANTS!)

Back to reality. To a certain degree I kind of equate trying to develop every last potential source of oil (for ourselves and not looking seriously at developing other energy alternatives) and leaving nothing, or as little as possible, for the future as a very greedy personal economic posture; akin to taking money from my kids savings account.

Do you know what people in, say, Ireland use to heat their homes? Me neither (my CS antennae isn't that powerful) but I do know they tend to keep their thermostats set around 50 to 55 degrees F which is what I do in the winter. In the summer I don't turn on my AC, I plant Shade trees! I conserve. So before I join the merry ranks of the let's drill everywhere we can think of and pump ourselves to happness crowd, I'd like to see them get a bit more serious about not wasting what energy we already have, and using that that we do have more wisely and efficiently.

How many of you guys who support drill fever have had a modern building science energy audit conducted on your home? Such an energy audit would include blower door, duct blaster, and maybe even pressure pan testing? Even brand new homes should have this done, and all new "Energy Star" homes must have this done in order to become Energy Star certified. I will guess that very few have had this done, and far fewer even have a clue what I'm talking about. But this is how you identiufy how to actually save on your home heating/cooling bills, improve the healthfulness of your home, and extend its structural integrity (by not having moisture problems and mold growing inside walls, etc.).

If you want to save money heating your home, you do it by eliminating the energy waste of your home as a first place to begin. the same goes for all energy serivces (transportation, lighting, etc.). You don't reduce your energy costs by ignoring your energy waste. Simply increasing energy supplies (and costs) in order to maintain the current level of comfort and waste is a strategy for failure, not a solution!

The people who put supplies ahead of judicial wise use, do so for their own profit (by taking your money). Increased energy efficiency results in lowered energy use, which means less in sales for them. So it's not in their own enlightened self-interest to promote efficiency (or using less to do more), but it is in their economic self-interest to promote increasing supplies and having everyone continue to use energy un-wisely and let the cost per BTU continue to go up.
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Postby Rat Creek » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:30 am

Sorry Dude, but I missed the post where is said open your windows, turn the AC to 45 degrees and leave the car running. I have never seen anyone argue against saving energy, but we need more supply to drive down prices. Saving is good, and supply is good.

I have done all the stuff you outline including an energy audit, but I didn’t do it to save energy or the planet, I did it to save money. My own greedy greenback movement.
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Postby dudejcb » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:46 am

Don't be sorry Ratcreek.

I missed the posts where anyone qualified their comments in support of more drilling with anything about how they themselves are choosing to impact their own use energy. rather, I read a bunch of nonsense that seemed to suuport that notion that an adequate energy policy is to simply open up as much as possible to unrestricted drilling, to supposedly increase our supply (despite other bottlenecks in the energy value chain), and that would result in lower energy costs). It won't.

And you are right that you don't really see anyone arguing to open their windows or leave the car running... they just do it blindly without recognizing the actual colume of waste they are guilty of, and instead then bitch about high energy costs. Bitching about high energy costs, or anythign for that matter, is a great human past time that for many seems to be a substitute for actually taking personal responsibility for your own energy use.

So. You have actually had blower door and duct blaster building science tests conducted on your home? What did they reveal? What can you share with us? Did the blower door test reveal that your home allows so much air movement through the envelope that it's equivaltent to an open window or door? Did the duct blaster measure ductwork leakage that ranged from 25 to 50%... which means that that same percentage of the cost of heating or cooling your home, actually goes toward heating and cooling the outdoors, and not into your home? did they person who did the audit show you how to seal your home and ductwork, or explain how air and moisture move through a buidling carrying energy, moisture, and sometimes even toxins, with it?

Most people don't realize how much energy they lose in their homes, so your experience might be insightful for the rest of DHC folk. Whatyagot?

BTW: why do you think more supply will drive prices down? In a simple Keynsian system it might, but in the energy world the players are pretty sophisticated and I suspect that even with greater supply they will easily come up with several other "valid" reasons why cost has to stay high. I also will go out on a limb to suggest that one of the reason they will cite for costs remaining high is due to environmental whako's who make everything cost more. Yeah. Been there, done that.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:02 pm

Problem is dude, I don't use one drop of oil to heat or cool my home. Natural gas and electricy and most of the electricity comes from nuclear in Illinois.

I'm sure you are driving a small hybrid to tow your boat while you go duck hunting :rofl:
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Postby dudejcb » Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:20 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:Problem is dude, I don't use one drop of oil to heat or cool my home. Natural gas and electricy and most of the electricity comes from nuclear in Illinois.
Doesn't really matter what source fuel you use for heating as the costs for all are interlinked and tend to track one another to a large degree. But you are right. My home has natural gas for heat. but in the winter time I use the central furnace to keep the house at 50 or 55 degrees, and if my wife's whining gets too severe I then use an electric space heater to increase the temp in the ONE WARM ROOM where she and I spend most of our time... so there are no efficiency losses in th3e heater or the distribution system... and my utility is 60% hydro so my emissions footprint are less that yours... nanner nanner nanner... and with no long term spent fuel storage issues. Again: Nanner, nanner, nanner!

SIDE NOTE on Spousal Whining: As duck hunters we should all be immune to this pernicious form of abuse. but alas, we are not and must endure in silence... for the most part. However as far as the cold house thing goes and its impact on the whining issue, there is good news! I have found that as we mature (and my wife begins to experience HOT FLASHES) she likes the house cold. BEAUTY! (BTW: I am not getting older... only she is. and she's etting crankier too!)

SpinnerMan wrote:I'm sure you are driving a small hybrid to tow your boat while you go duck hunting :rofl:
No I need a truck to trailer my barge to the ramp, and I need a barge for hunting in order to haul the tremendous number of dead ducks and geese I kill (not really. fact is I have too many decoys). But those things aren't at issue here as I haven't been bitching about how more drilling would afford me a more economical hunting commute.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:06 pm

Actually, I don't believe hydro has a lower "footprint" because it takes a lot of concrete to build those damn dams. Most of the emissions from a nuke plant are from the enrichment process. There is no reason that nuclear power plants cannot run the enrichment plant, but they usually assume that the power comes from a mix of coal. Can't make nuclear look too good. Also the next generation of enrichment plants are far less energy intensive.

I like the idea of keeping the house at 55 and 80. I just need to turn the thermostat down right now and turn it up in Janurary.

You rambled on about how you are doing all these great things on a topic related to reducing oil prices, but you admit they don't do a damn thing. Glad you could contribute :rolleyes: You need to work on that ADD/ADHD. They have pills for that.

Nobody is proposing that we ONLY drill. Free up the U.S. oil companies to drill where they hell ever the want. They still have to meet all of the existing environmental regulations. We should provide insentives for new oil companies to enter the market, especially refiners. This would not take one damn penny away from research into alternatives like nuclear generated hydrogen, bacterial generated crude oil, coal gasification, natural gas power automobiles, ... We should be doing these too and funding the promising ones aggressively. Why don't we have a government financed coal gasification plant or two under way as we speak? It works and we know it works.
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Postby dudejcb » Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:29 pm

Spinnerman, you are making this too easy. Concrete containment structures and cooling rod pits and all that other stuff requires concrete so...even tho concrete is a highly energy intensive product... for our purposes (of giving each other a hard time) the issue of concrete for various generating stations is a wash.

AND, if you can get me a scrip for ADDHD or whatever please ship the pills asap. And yes, I do things that should help keep prices low but have come to realize that these guys are smart and very good at comikng up with new reasons why the prices need to rise. Kind of like that whack-a-mole notion. Whack one mole and five other heads pop up. (did I ramble? gosh, doesnt sound like me.)

I'm not really supportive of offering incentives for new oil companies to enter the market at this point. In days of record profits one would think the lure of "record" profits would be incentive enough should any new players want to become oil magnates. rather, incentives would be appropriate for oil gasification (your pet project) and other alternatives to get those industries and infrastructures buildt up to the point where they could be relevant.

Also: yes do turn your t-stat dpown to 55 for the summer, but be sure to unplug your refrigerator as you will no longer need it... at 55 degrees your home is adequately refrigerated to keep most perishables safe for at least a day or so. Just be sure to cook everything (including salads) to at least 157 degrees F.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:09 pm

It concrete per kW-hr of energy generated that matters. A nuke plant produces an incredible amount of energy for its size. That's what the windmill and solar guys don't get. The nukes produce tremendous amounts of enegy 24/7 for about 1.5 years, then take a month off and back to 24/7 production of electricity. Industry wide the capacity factor is well about 90%. I've heard, not confirmed, that the average capacity factor for windmills operating in the U.S. is 15%. Hydroelectric doesn't do that well either in terms of capacity factor. The low capacity factor and high commodity requirements is why their "footprints" are so bad.

If the profits of the oil companies are so far out of line with other industries, then why aren't we seeing investment backers backing new refineries, etc?. You don't think they like money as much as the existing oil companies?

Every year should be a new record. So when you say record profits, you are simply making a meaningless statement. I personally had record profits again. I think this is about 10 years straight of record profits and if I keep my job and get my annual COL, I will have a new record next year :banana:
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Postby dudejcb » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:36 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:If the profits of the oil companies are so far out of line with other industries, then why aren't we seeing investment backers backing new refineries, etc?. You don't think they like money as much as the existing oil companies?:
What if investment bankers built a refinery and then didn't have any oil to refine? I don't think any investment banker would back any new refinery project unless it comes with 30-years worth of lead-pipe-cinch contracts for a stable supply of crude oil ready for processing. Now, where would someone (an investmetn banker) go to get a contract for long term crude oil supplies? Oh yeah, from Big Oil. And why would Big Oil let some investment bankers horn in on their lucrative action? I dunno. doesn't make sense. maybe that's why it hasn't happened.
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Postby SpinnerMan » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:48 pm

U.S. oil companies do not control any where near that much of the world oil. It is an extremely widely traded commodity. You can personally buy all the damn oil you want on the futures market. With excess profit levels, they can surely secure a large supply of oil from various sources all over the world and still easily make just normal profits.

Please, tell me you don't seriously believe your last post.

If you do actually believe that, it may truly be hopeless because you are a well informed progressive compared to the dunces like Obama.
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Postby dudejcb » Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:47 pm

I don't know if I actually believe that... I thought we were just screwing with each other for grins, wasn't giving it a whole lot of thought, just playin' Devil's advocate.
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Postby jkkaywoo » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:21 am

Wow either I am really bored and the only semi sober person in my house(both true) or this is one of the best debates ive seen on a hunting forum ever(also true). Well done dudejcb, not saying I agree with all of what you said, and I understand it was a joke. However you did impact some of my ideals which takes alot. Both sides well played, I enjoyed it. I understand the enviroment is important, but our superior economy is just as important, in relation to China, Iran, and the UAE. Drilling now will lower gas prices yes? Now correct me if I am wrong, but wont this induce a trickle down affect similar to what is seen in reganomics or suply side economics, with lower taxes? Lower gas prices equals savings, which equals more spending, which equals more jobs which equals a better economy. A better economy will induce inovation in all sectors including drilling and energy which could arguably lean us off of oil. Of course one could argue that supply side economics is bogus thus destroying my argument, but I see no way it wouldnt work, especially the trickle down affect. (I hate being the sober driver here I am thinking about economics while being a college student on a Friday/Sat morning).
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Postby DoubleBayou » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:36 am

Lifting the presidential moratorium has no immediate effect on exploration because Congress has enacted its own prohibitions on offshore drilling "every year" since the 1980s as part of the Interior Department's appropriations bill, and congressional Democrats on July 15th vowed to do so again.

Who's in denial?

It will in fact take years to see the benefits of allowing more offshore exploration. But 'something' has to be done.
Blaming Bush for gas prices is ludicrous. He was responsible for the car wreck I had last year too huh.


When Katrina and Rita hit and there were 'real & tangible' refineries offline for months the gas prices didn't rise to this level. That was a real impact that can be seen by every day man's eyes.

Your Blue led Congress is the true cause of today's oil prices. The week they took control the sleeping enemy was awakened.
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