I was thinking the same thing!
Looking at the owner's maunal it says that "once the bolt is fully open, the carrier sweeps downward ejecting the spent shell out of the ejection/loading port. After the shell is ejected, the carrier moves the new shell released from the magazine and places it in front of the bolt."
This is were we are having the problem. For some reason the shell in the magazine tube is coming out early, and either getting pushed down with the empty shell, or simply fall out with now carrier to catch it.
I know for a FACT that IF that carrier was in the proper position when the shell is released from the magazine tube, that IT WILL NOT fall out and go up into the gun like it should.
So we are having issues with the carrier either being in the wrong place (due to mechanical issues in the cold), or with the magazine tube not releasing shells in the correct time sequence(due to mechanical issues in the cold).
Looking at the parts list, the feed latch, carrier springs, or the interceptor latch, all could be the problem. So we need to look at these parts critically. I know that springs lose some of their force, when cold, but I honestly don't think it is a carrier spring problem. I think there is an issue with the feed latch, and maybe the metal contracts or expands...or something, and when it is cold, and you shoot the RECOIL from the gun is causing the feed latch to release the shell way too early.
So Augusta, take a close look at your feed latch, that is my current recommendation. See if you can see and figure out EXACTLY when the feed latch releases and how it releases a shell from the magazine tube.
Let me know what you find.