Here is a weather outlook used by Ca. fire agencies. it a 30 outlook with predictions thru December.
Toward the bottom you see they call for wet November in So Cal and dry November in North valley rice.
I hope they are wrong!
30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR COAST and VALLEY AREAS OF CALIFORNIA
and SEASONAL OUTLOOK UPDATE
1800 PDT Aug 19, 2013
We have started to see tropical lows developing near the
southern tip of Baja and enhancing TSTM activity in W Mexico,
as is normal for this time of year. High pressure has kept
tropical moisture and monsoonal TSTMS from affecting S Calif,
but the pattern has begun to change to a more typically active
one for this time of year for SOCAL.
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures continue from
125W to 175W off central and N Calif while a zone of cold
sea surface temperatures lies along the southcentral coast
and southwestward. Support for weak troughing exists over
Calif but the pattern will switch to one dominated by
westerlies into British Columbia, high pressure over Calif
and an increase in tropical cyclone activity off S Baja. One
notable feature is the possibility of a tropical cyclone-
associated rain event in SOCAL on 25-26th, which we alluded
to in the morning forecasts today (Mon).
Near Term - Aug 21 - Sep 5... (N and Central Calif)-
Recurrent troughing will occur, with periods of
SE flow and TSTMS in most of NORCAL. While rain of
consequence is unlikely in the Rice Belt, significant
TSTM activity will be recurring in the SierraNV from Tahoe
north thru Lassen Co, across the Siskiyou's and into NW
Calif mountains areas. Upper high pressure and hot conditions
will develop during 23-25th in response to the tropical cyclone
approaching or causing rains in SOCAL. Some significant or
widespread rain from this system may move thru the SierraNV
on 27th. -28th with potential for heavy rains in the Feather
and American watersheds and Stanislaus/Tuolumne watersheds.
After the heavy rains on the 27-28th, we turn hot on 29th
thru the first few days of Sept. Southerly flow may bring
cooling to the Napa and Sonoma Co's valley areas and the
Sacramento Delta, but it will be hot most areas. Watch for
TSTMS developing in 30th - 2 Sept, and again 3-4th.
-Delta/Rice Region Northcentral Calif) Aug 21 - Sep 5 -
While rain of consequence is unlikely in the Rice
Belt, significant TSTM activity will be recurring in the
SierraNV from Tahoe north thru Lassen Co, and across the
NORCAL mountain areas. Upper high pressure and hot conditions
will develop during 23-25th in response to the tropical
cyclone affecting SOCAL. Hot conditions during 29th - 3 Sept
will be mitigated somewhat by southerly flow from the Bay into
the Rice Belt. It will be unsettled though during that period
with TSTMS in the SierraNV nearby to the east, and possibly Napa
and Lake Co's to the west.
..Near-Term-Southern California Avocado Region Aug 21-Sep 5...
The main factors to consider are the risk of hot
conditions on 21-24th, possible heavy rains and/or TSTMS caused
by the near approach of a tropical cyclone on the 25-27th
then very warm and humid conditions on 29th - 3 Sept.
For Sep 6-20..(N and Central Calif)-
Support exists for tropical cyclones developing off S
Mexico then moving W and WNW. This will tend to aid the
development of hot conditions over central and N Calif, while
cutoff lows develop W of S Calif and draw tropical moisture
into SOCAL again. There will be some periods of dry hot
offshore flow in NORCAL, (bad for fire season), and in central
For Sep 6-20: Rice region S Sacramento Vly -
During the the first part of Sept, the change
in longwave pattern and seasonal change will tend to weaken
the Delta breeze, and we will see more susceptability to dry
offshore flow events and hot days during the first part of
Sept. Because of the warmer and drier conditions, we should
see consistently higher ETO's events during early to mid Sept.
For Sep 6-20: Southern California Avocado Region -
Overall Pattern: Above normal temperatures with
continued risk for TSTMS from upper lows, affecting mainly
the mountains and deserts.
At this time, upper lows are now finding best support
for development off the coast of Baja and S Calif, due to the
expected forcing from the sea surface temperature field.
…..SEASONAL OUTLOOK/ EL NINO UPDATE...
Minimal or no El Nino influence is indicated for
the fall according to the latest NOAA guidance posted on the
NOAA/NCEP/CPC CFS2 web site and Scripps ECPC.
It appears that we should prepare for some Santa
Ana events (more than usual) for S Calif, and above normal
occurrence of offshore dry winds in N and central Calif
as well during late Sep - early Dec. No El Nino conditions
are currently indicated by eitherHowever, NOAA/CPC
shows that equatorial sea surface temperatures return
to a little below normal in Jan 2014. Scripps ECPC shows
a possible return of weak El Nino conditions in the spring
2014. However, weak El Nino conditions tend to support
cutoff lows and lack of consistency between the midlatitude
and subtropical branches of the westerlies. This supports
a lack of predictability.
N and Northcentral Calif..(Sep 20 - Dec 20)...
The current sea surface temperature anomaly pattern
across the central and N Pacific favors a storm track
that is further north than normal...through December.
The pattern is remarkably stable, consisting of support
for troughing in the mid Pacific N of Hawaii, and
persistent ridging, oriented west-east from the central
Pacific into central and N Calif. Further north, in the
Pacific Northwest, atmospheric river conditions,
bringing subtropical moisture into the Pacific Northwest
will tend to become recurrent in Oct and continuing thru
most of Dec. Dry and unseasonably warm or mild conditions
are indicated in central and N Calif from this pattern.
For Calif, it looks like a long, dry fall season...and in
the forests...an extended fire season to be concerned with.
We can usually rely on a well-defined series of
fronts to come into central and N Calif around 12-20 Nov. This
may be more difficult to realize this season due to the
currently unfavorable sea surface temperature anomaly
(SSTA) pattern in the midlatitude north Pacific.
...Rice Region S Sacramento Vly Sep 20-Dec 20...
Warmer and drier than normal, with potential for an
extended period of warm weather in Oct and first part of
Nov. However, within that dry and warm period we still
could see a stray TSTM or two in late Sept from tropical
A late start to the rainy season is supported by the
current SSTA pattern.
....Southern California Avocado Region...(Sep 20-Dec 20)
In response to the SSTA pattern we would expect
cutoff lows to develop in late Sept and Oct, and cause
some TSTMS and showers in Southern Calif. This pattern does not
support Atmospheric River (AR) events in S or central Calif.
In Nov, we may also see some locally abundant rainfall
especially in San Diego and Orange Counties and San Bernardino
...Outlook for Imperial/Coachella/Yuma Valleys Sep 20 - Nov 20..
During this time we would expect a few active periods
of TSTMS from late season monsoonal moisture (cutoff lows).
During these times heavy rains are a possibility to consider,
though infrequent. The cause of TSTM risk shifts from easterly
waves in summer to cutoff lows and tropical cyclone events in
Sept, and cutoff lows in Sept thru mid Oct. North wind events
normally start in late Oct and reach the first maximu about