Will we get a back flow?

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Will we get a back flow?

Postby clwalkin » Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:05 pm

With the weather this weekend reaching near 70 degrees will it be possible to get a back flow of all the ducks that were here in "Southern Illinois". It was good while it lasted, but has gotten stale the past few days. What ducks are here know the drill and just aren't finishing like they were. There can't possibly any ducks yet up north with the ice that keeps getting reported, ice and ducks not a good combination. Guess I might pack my stuff and go to Arkansas and tough out the 70 + degrees before it gets too cold down there and runs the ducks to Louisiana.
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby little goose » Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:35 pm

I don't know about a back flow, but don't worry there are plenty of birds that haven't even made it into Illinois yet.
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby Kesselmayern » Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:43 pm

I agree with little goose. I'm at school at school in Wisconsin right now, and the weather up here has been 50's and 60's for a while and it isn't supposed to drop below 40 till next Wednesday and snow isn't in the forecast until the 9th. If we get some colder weather up here it'll push a lot of ducks and geese south
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby Grossy23 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:50 am

No snow until the 9th of December ?!?!? Say it ain't so !!!
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby KillerKowalski » Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:10 am

The 10-day forecast isn't accurate for precipitation ever. I don't doubt the temps though.
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby SPatrick » Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:09 am

I doubt you will see a reverse migration, but talked to a few folks in South Dakota the other day, they are covered up right now. Still more ducks to come, just don't know if they will get here in time.
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby SpinnerMan » Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:16 am

KillerKowalski wrote:The 10-day forecast isn't accurate for precipitation ever. I don't doubt the temps though.

Depends on what you mean by accurate. The forecast is almost never 0% chance of precipitation or 100% chance of precipitation. So you need to dig a little deeper than the simple symbols that they throw up. 10 days out a 20% chance of rain can evolve to a near 100% chance of snow on day 9 as we get closer and the models get closer to simply looking out the window.

They do a decent job telling you if there is moisture and instability to convert that moisture into precipitation that is coming. They can be off on how quickly that moisture gets here and they can be off on how likely that it will turn into precipitation and how much.

If they never use 0% or 100%, they can never be wrong :wink:

If they say 0%, that usually is reliable. If they say 100%, that's usually reliable, but it may slide by a day since they can be wrong on how fast it moves. It's when they put numbers in the 20% to 80% that are out a ways. That tells you little more than Image Maybe, maybe not and you can count on that too :thumbsup: :lol3:

Now the wind forecasts. Forget about it. Completely useless.
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Will we get a back flow?

Postby jaysweet3 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:38 pm

We could get a bit of a reverse migration, I think there are still birds that haven't come down yet.


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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby clwalkin » Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:22 pm

I don't see that many ducks still being north with the freeze up that way. Had record kills in my neck of the woods but that has come to a screeching halt. With all the ducks I've seen come through here, I think most have went through already.
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby KillerKowalski » Thu Nov 29, 2012 6:21 pm

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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby SPatrick » Thu Nov 29, 2012 6:34 pm

No seriously there are crap tons of ducks up north still.
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby Cujo1 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 6:42 pm

SPatrick wrote:No seriously there are crap tons of ducks up north still.

Ok, seriously, what are crap tons? I know what tons are and I know what a ton of crap would be, but what is a crap ton? I know you are an educator so I assume you get this reference from the youngsters, but what is it?
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby Grossy23 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:10 pm

I don't think that all the ducks have pushed through . However , if we don't get weather we won't see the rest until duck season is over in Illinois . At least in the central zone .
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Re: Will we get a back flow?

Postby KillerKowalski » Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:47 pm

Grossy, agreed. I am predicting the push for Central will come the last week into the first week of January. Well after, as usual. :mad:
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