KillerKowalski wrote:The 10-day forecast isn't accurate for precipitation ever. I don't doubt the temps though.
Depends on what you mean by accurate. The forecast is almost never 0% chance of precipitation or 100% chance of precipitation. So you need to dig a little deeper than the simple symbols that they throw up. 10 days out a 20% chance of rain can evolve to a near 100% chance of snow on day 9 as we get closer and the models get closer to simply looking out the window.
They do a decent job telling you if there is moisture and instability to convert that moisture into precipitation that is coming. They can be off on how quickly that moisture gets here and they can be off on how likely that it will turn into precipitation and how much.
If they never use 0% or 100%, they can never be wrong
If they say 0%, that usually is reliable. If they say 100%, that's usually reliable, but it may slide by a day since they can be wrong on how fast it moves. It's when they put numbers in the 20% to 80% that are out a ways. That tells you little more than
Maybe, maybe not and you can count on that too
Now the wind forecasts. Forget about it. Completely useless.
Stupid people can cause problems, but it usually takes brilliant people to create a real catastrophe. Thomas Sowell