Reserved Hunt Bull

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Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby E_meister » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:26 pm

So... for the 2nd year in a row we had 5 guys apply for reserved hunts, and none successful. It seems as if the chances have really gone down the tubes. I don't feel that there are that many more waterfowl hunters...

I am a math type of person.... so I tried to analyze this.

Each application has 2x chances to get a hunt. That means that for 2 years we are 0 for 20.

IF we had gotten just 1 application accepted that would give us a 1/20 chance (it is worse than this but we'll use this as reference). This is a 5% chance. One of the locations we apply for is SRSGA. Lets say that they give out 100 tickets (although I think they may only give out 80 or so).

If it is a 1/20 chance or worse, and 100 tickets are given out, and my logic is correct, that would mean that 2,000 + people must have applied. Even if it is only 80 hunts... thats still 1600 people.

Are there really 2,000 hunters that apply just for SRSGA?! Or is there something else going on here?

I've heard rumors that Anti-hunters will purchase these apps just to cause hunters not to get them...

I guess the reason I am skeptical is 5 years ago and more... we were successful every year, with some years getting multiple draws... what has changed?
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby E_meister » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:33 pm

Aww crap I'm starting to see a couple mistakes in my math.

I am doing it per chances, instead of per person. So, since everyone gets 2 chances, that means that really only about 1000 people applied. And then, since it is spread out over 2 years, it means that it could be 500 each year, which seems like a much more likely number.

Well, guess it's back to a non-managed area for opening weekend again this year.
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby spartansfan » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:18 pm

my group was 0-8 this year and 1-6 last year. now thats bad luck
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby E_meister » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:47 pm

Spartansfan... thats what I'm wondering... take your 8 guys and my 4 guys and now you're up to 12 for 12 that have not gotten a draw... thats 0 for 24 chances total!

Is this bad luck... or is there really something else shady going on?
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby A-Bomb » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:05 pm

From what ive seen on another forum group succsess rates are pretty low. For example, our group is 2 for 6. Seen lots of similar results on the other forum i frequent. I was fortunate and have AM on day two.
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby waterfowlhunter » Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:55 am

You actually only have 1 chance even though you pick 2 choices your application will only get picked once. Bacisally if your card is drawn and you picked 1st day am and there is space for you that is what you will get. if not they will give you the alternate if it is available. If neither your 1st or second choice is available you get nothing and they pick the next person. So to me that is only 1 chance to get in even though you do have 2 choices for that one chance. Just my opinion on it.

For several years our group of 4 got at least one every year but for the past 4 years we have not got in, I was told that for fish point there are usually a couple thousand applications for the 35 per day (fish point) they give out so the odds are not that great to start with. so if there were 2000 the odds of your getting drawn is about 1 in 14 (if you can apply for the youth only hunt too) and if you have 4 in a party that is about 1 in 4 for the party but actually it is still 1 in 14 just you have 4 chances within that 1 in 14. so basically everyone of us should get it at least one time in every 14 times we put in for it. or a group of 4 should get it once every 4 years. :lol3:

if you can not get in on the youth hunt you loose 1/4 so your odds go down a bit.
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby animalx1 » Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:35 am

I have been playing Duck Bingo at the draw areas since the middle 80's. After "numerous" years of not drawing a reserved hunt, I very rarely even bother to enter the drawing anymore. I do go play bingo quite often during the season, but rarely put in for the reserved opener. Not worth the frustration to me.
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby E_meister » Tue Sep 21, 2010 11:21 am

Thanks waterfowlhunter. I guess somewhere between 1/14 and 1/20 is a good estimate of what it must be for odds of getting a reserved hunt, there are so many variables to it that it would take quite a lot of work to get a perfect number, but that range seems reasonable to me.

I guess those years we strung some together was just a lucky streak, and now we're on the downside.

Animalx... I wish more people woudl think like that so my party would have a better chance of getting in!


As it is now, I'll be getting up at midnight to get to a public spot early enough that it isn't taken yet, then take a catnap in the woods and hope to not get poison ivy this year.
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby spartansfan » Tue Sep 21, 2010 4:17 pm

E_meister wrote:As it is now, I'll be getting up at midnight to get to a public spot early enough that it isn't taken yet, then take a catnap in the woods and hope to not get poison ivy this year.


Isnt that the trutch. i guess they so go hard or go home for a reason
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby A-Bomb » Tue Sep 21, 2010 6:54 pm

Screw that, theres plenty of dry fields with ducks and geese coming to them to go sleep in a boat and fight the crowds that are gonna screw you over 5 minutes before shooting time. Id get some winshield time in and attack em from that angle. I got drawn for day two, so ill be in a field on the opener. Will probably primarily be geese in the cut corn, but i can handle that! Lotta season to kill quackers outside the opener!!!! :thumbsup:
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby E_meister » Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:26 am

A-Bomb wrote: Lotta season to kill quackers outside the opener!!!! :thumbsup:


That's the key A-bomb. The fun part about the opener is the tradition for me. I do need to spend some serious windsheild time around this area and make some friends with some landowners.
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Re: Reserved Hunt Bull

Postby A-Bomb » Wed Sep 22, 2010 8:07 pm

I hear ya...tradition is very important. For me its hunting with my Dad and my brother on the opener. Something we've done every year for as long as i can remember.
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