So... for the 2nd year in a row we had 5 guys apply for reserved hunts, and none successful. It seems as if the chances have really gone down the tubes. I don't feel that there are that many more waterfowl hunters...
I am a math type of person.... so I tried to analyze this.
Each application has 2x chances to get a hunt. That means that for 2 years we are 0 for 20.
IF we had gotten just 1 application accepted that would give us a 1/20 chance (it is worse than this but we'll use this as reference). This is a 5% chance. One of the locations we apply for is SRSGA. Lets say that they give out 100 tickets (although I think they may only give out 80 or so).
If it is a 1/20 chance or worse, and 100 tickets are given out, and my logic is correct, that would mean that 2,000 + people must have applied. Even if it is only 80 hunts... thats still 1600 people.
Are there really 2,000 hunters that apply just for SRSGA?! Or is there something else going on here?
I've heard rumors that Anti-hunters will purchase these apps just to cause hunters not to get them...
I guess the reason I am skeptical is 5 years ago and more... we were successful every year, with some years getting multiple draws... what has changed?
Shake it more than 3 times and you're playin with it.