You actually only have 1 chance even though you pick 2 choices your application will only get picked once. Bacisally if your card is drawn and you picked 1st day am and there is space for you that is what you will get. if not they will give you the alternate if it is available. If neither your 1st or second choice is available you get nothing and they pick the next person. So to me that is only 1 chance to get in even though you do have 2 choices for that one chance. Just my opinion on it.
For several years our group of 4 got at least one every year but for the past 4 years we have not got in, I was told that for fish point there are usually a couple thousand applications for the 35 per day (fish point) they give out so the odds are not that great to start with. so if there were 2000 the odds of your getting drawn is about 1 in 14 (if you can apply for the youth only hunt too) and if you have 4 in a party that is about 1 in 4 for the party but actually it is still 1 in 14 just you have 4 chances within that 1 in 14. so basically everyone of us should get it at least one time in every 14 times we put in for it. or a group of 4 should get it once every 4 years.
if you can not get in on the youth hunt you loose 1/4 so your odds go down a bit.
CPL holder since 1991, NRA Lifetime Member, DU Member, NICET certified
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