There may be fewer ducks.

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There may be fewer ducks.

Postby macdaddy » Mon Nov 22, 2004 11:53 am

Guys - this is disturbing news that youns aren't seeing anything. I hope that I'm wrong, but maybe youns are on to something. I have the Nov/Dec Ducks Unlimited magazine that claims that numbers may be down, but that there is a wonderful system in place; AHM. When I first saw this, I thought that an old importer of model trains had made a comeback. No, AHM stands for Adaptive Harvest Management. Using some kind of math, when duck numbers are up, the harvest numbers are up. But not always. Apparently we are in the "not always" cycle. I think that USFWS saw the big numbers of ducks in the mid 90's. This in turn brought out bigger numbers of duck hunters. More hunters = more duck stamps = bigger revenues. Problem is, the weather isn't cooperating. O yes - geese numbers are wwaaayyy up. Here in PA they're all residents. But duck numbers, I fear, are down. & USFWS is still handing us the same bull***t just so long as we keep plunking down our $15. Follow the money - works all of the time. I won't quit, but look for a one - a - day limit next few yrs. Just my 2cents, for what it's worth. What do youns think?
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Postby donell67 » Mon Nov 22, 2004 12:48 pm

we saw and got alot more ducks in the mid 90s also.lowering the limits isnt all bad because it will mean alot less hunters too.when our limit was 4 here was hardly any hunters. when it went back to 7 theres hunters everywhere.only thing i would be afraid of is if they shut it down completley. which i doubt would ever happen. they would lose to much money.
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Postby KO » Mon Nov 22, 2004 1:01 pm

A major part of the problem is Canada is now plowing up acres of grasses and draining those small wetlands that ducks love to nest in.....They seem to be making the same mistakes we have made in the past.

As far as AHM goes...it can be good or bad...An example is this year in MN our counts were way up...the USFWS counts were down...but when the 2 were added together it allowed the long season/high limit. Unfortunately our count was conducted when the birds had yet to migrate out of MN....We had very few resident birds all summer long.......so this year AHM failed......I talked with a USFWS guy today and he agreed that he to would rather see a limit lowered if it meant we would see more birds....as it stands now...the only birds I bagged were the only birds I saw...thats scarey...
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Postby Hunten E Guy » Mon Nov 22, 2004 5:35 pm

i agree, a 6 duck limit means nothing if you are lucky to shoot one a day, i wouldn't mind seeing the limit go back down to four
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Postby quackkiller » Mon Nov 22, 2004 6:10 pm

I'm only 17 and as much as I love duck hunting, it wouldn't bother me one bit to see the limits go down. For one thing, I'm addicted and I would like to still be able to duck hunt when I'm older. The refuge where I live does an excellent job of holding ducks and providing habitat. I think a good idea for many states to practice is raise and release. This would help out resident populations and after a few years if they survived they would keep producing and I think that could help the population a little.
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Postby Snaph » Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:01 pm

As my hunting buddy and I stood in our secret spot today (watching empty skys), we hatched a half-cocked theory. But first, as I read a few of these posts on this site; some people say the have ducks all over and some (like me) have seen very few. I was told there were thousands apon thousands of ducks coming thru the Lake Erie region last year.

We have been blaming nice weather for the slow migration also. Then we thought we missed the miragration, cuz we saw boat loads of mallards fly over early in the season. Then we went back to the weather being too nice, the ducks are still north of us. Anyways our crack-pot minds went to thinking maybe the hurricanes coming up thru the eastern coast pushed the ducks west. Hey, when you are bored and not seeing birds, any idea sounds good at the time. Would John Kerry blame Bush?...you bettcha. Ole' Bill thinks it's because of Bush also. Bill said something like, "dag gum Bush went and ate dem ducks all up."
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Plain and simple...

Postby PinTeal » Mon Nov 22, 2004 11:09 pm

The birds have just not come down yet.

If the numbers are THAT low...to where we are seeing no birds...then we are in deep doo doo and emerigency measures would be taken. There is no way the counts would be that far off...and if they were, as I said, emergency measures would be taken.

Relax....duck season is just fixin' to start, boys!

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Postby Hunten E Guy » Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:26 am

haha to bad it is ending tomarrow here, nd acourding to alot of people they havent come down yet
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duck numbers

Postby jmike » Tue Nov 23, 2004 1:32 am

were seeing good numbers of bird here in western oregon , shot :thumbsup 2 limits last weekend , a buddy of mine who is retired has been knockin em dead all season , mostley teals .....he says the numbers are getting better every week ..................jmike :thumbsup:
dont shoot till there feet are down
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Postby surf_ox » Tue Nov 23, 2004 4:47 pm

here in southern indiana the numbers of ducks in the sky are way way way up....in FEBRUARY that is...after season is over....

remember when it used to be cold in oct and nov.....the seasons are shifting but the duck seasons aren't....march is almost always usually cold around here now....it used to be mild....

i own a propane company and can see a big difference in propane usage during the months of oct and nov.....heating fuel...when its warm you don;t run the furnace as much....

season starts fri and were expecting a little chillier weather coming up...i hope the ducks get a move on
Is a frustrated hunter swinging a canoe paddle after sunset at a fall teal breaking any laws?
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Postby KO » Tue Nov 23, 2004 7:09 pm

well to you guys who think the birds are yet to come, think about this

Nesting success in 1955 for ducks was 21%
Nesting success in 1972 dropped to 15%
Nesting success in 1992 dropped to 10%

see a trend?

Assuming the trend continues and with the loss of habitat to agriculture and predators having an easier time finding the nest in this shrinking enviroment, there is no reason to believe it hasn't. The nesting success now is in all probability in single digits.

Now consider that a minimum of 12 to 20% is needed to make any increase in the population.

Now consider a long season with high limits and a low nest success rate....Do you really believe that we are now not shooting our base/breeding population......


All I can say is this: Wake up or enjoy your seasons now because the end is coming
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Postby PinTeal » Tue Nov 23, 2004 8:49 pm

KO wrote:well to you guys who think the birds are yet to come, think about this

Nesting success in 1955 for ducks was 21%
Nesting success in 1972 dropped to 15%
Nesting success in 1992 dropped to 10%

see a trend?

Assuming the trend continues and with the loss of habitat to agriculture and predators having an easier time finding the nest in this shrinking enviroment, there is no reason to believe it hasn't. The nesting success now is in all probability in single digits.

Now consider that a minimum of 12 to 20% is needed to make any increase in the population.

Now consider a long season with high limits and a low nest success rate....Do you really believe that we are now not shooting our base/breeding population......


All I can say is this: Wake up or enjoy your seasons now because the end is coming



Do you honestly think that the liberal wienies are going to allow hunters to over shoot the duck population causing its demise?

I cannot even fathom the idea of that, to me, it is ludicrus and obsurd. If the duck counts are drastically down, you had better believe your/our limits will be down as well; as they have no problems cutting our limits and/or season short. It was not too long ago that the limit was 4 hinting that duck counts are up.

If you are not going to be shooting ducks anymore...care to make me a deal on your shotgun? ;)

I hope that this message does not make me sound like an ******...it is not my intent.

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Postby KO » Wed Nov 24, 2004 6:33 am

Unfortunately yes I do...When a top bbiologist said the day is coming when we wil always have ducks to look at, but not to hunt...and I see the change....yes I believe it...........And part of the problem is hunters are to trusting to raise any stink....
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Postby PinTeal » Wed Nov 24, 2004 3:04 pm

KO wrote:Unfortunately yes I do...When a top bbiologist said the day is coming when we wil always have ducks to look at, but not to hunt...and I see the change....yes I believe it...........And part of the problem is hunters are to trusting to raise any stink....



I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree.

Cheers.

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Postby KO » Wed Nov 24, 2004 4:28 pm

well here's something else to consider. The North American Waterfowl Management Plan called for 100 million bird fall flight....

This spring the USFWS reported the breeding population at 36 million....in a perfect world 1/2 of that 36 million will be hens...and of those 18 million hens...lets be overly optimistic and say they have a 20% nest success and all produce 10 young birds...that means 36 million new ducks were raised..which added to the 36 million we already have is 72 million birds....far below the 100 million called for....and remember that nest success hasn't been 20% since 1955......and with the habitat loss contiuing at the pace it is....well you get the idea....If your mind hasn't changed...do me a favor....5 years from now remember we had this conversation...because thats about as close to real duck hunting you'll get...Take care...I hope your right, but 47 years has taught me different...couple that with the fact I work for the goverment and know how it operates....
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