Federal land projects

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:29 pm

Nope.that is 100% certain if you go in and argue that with the professor.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby The Duck Hammer » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:31 pm

Indaswamp wrote:Nope.that is 100% certain if you go in and argue that with the professor.

Incorrect. He could fail me or he could see the light and agree with the simplistic and infallible logic. So 50/50.


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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:31 pm

The Duck Hammer wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:Nope.that is 100% certain if you go in and argue that with the professor.

Incorrect. He could fail me or he could see the light and agree with the simplistic and infallible logic. So 50/50.


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:no:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby The Duck Hammer » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:33 pm

50/50


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jaysweet3 wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:easy...just manipulate the ruler to make the inch shorter so that 28" reads 30"..... :thumbsup:

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:35 pm

The Duck Hammer wrote:50/50


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You guys keep believing what you wanna believe....I'm done.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby The Duck Hammer » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:39 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
The Duck Hammer wrote:50/50


Sent from my Vox Mortem

You guys keep believing what you wanna believe....I'm done.

You said that earlier and then continued to argue with me. That proves the validity of the Law of 50/50...


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jaysweet3 wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:easy...just manipulate the ruler to make the inch shorter so that 28" reads 30"..... :thumbsup:

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:54 am

:lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:49 am

Indaswamp wrote:SMH...I give up....agree to disagree. It's pointless for me to continue explaining it. You'd fail statistics.



I think you actually mean you'd fail probability, not statistics.

But either way, an event can be weighted however you want. It doesn't matter to the outcome. A weighting is a prediction, nothing more. And furthermore, it is far from an absolute. You speak as if the weighting is something akin to the theory of gravity, but it is simply another subjective measure.

For example:

Get 50 people. Have 5 small boxes in front of them. Tell them there is a $100 bill in one of the boxes, and there are rattlesnakes in the other 4. Then tell them they may reach into a box, or they may leave. Some may still choose to go for the $100, maybe not, who knows. Now, tell them there is a stack of 10 $100 bills in one box. Tell them the same thing. Most likely, more would choose to risk reaching into a box. Repeat it one more time, with a stack of 100 $100 bills. I bet even more would choose to reach into a box. Maybe not, though. As soon as you pick a box, the other 4 boxes cease to exist. They no longer matter. When you choose a box and reach in, there are only two choices- you will grab a stack of benjamins, or you will not. If the dollars are in a different box, then you did NOT choose the one with the money.

But in each case, the traditional risk/reward "probability" is the same, yet people choose to behave differently. Because they do a personal assessment, and see if it's worth it. The "weighting" of the possible outcomes has far less to do with the choice than the individual themselves. So to speak of "weighting" and "odds" as if they are some inviolable "great determiner" is sort of silly. The only matter BEFORE the fact. And unless you've been paid for winning the lottery BEFORE the numbers are drawn, or have been paid for placing a bet BEFORE the game takes place, traditional "odds" really don't matter that much. You are ultimately left with only two outcomes, the things that you actually get paid for- and there are only two. Either you win, or you lose. That's all. 50/50.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Underradar » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:03 am

I set fire to the box. Screw Schrodinger and his cat.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:10 am

50/50 it puts itself out before doing any damage.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:52 am

The Cajun 7 Course Meal; 1 lb. of boudin and a six pack of Abita beer.

Save the Marsh, Eat a Nutria!

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Cujo1 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:10 am

I love the fact that there are two sides to this debate with multiple debaters which means the odds of one side or the other being correct or not correct is influenced by the number of people on each side of the debate which means the probablility of one or more per side of the debate cannot be 50/50 but in direct correlation to the number of people involved would alter the probability relationship by the number of principles involved, however the outcome of being correct or incorrect only has two possible outcomes which would make the outcome 50/50 even thought the probablility of the groups had different odds than the outcomes which means that really there is only one way to look at this which would make the argument 100% unless of course you are wrong then it would still be 100% which in effect means the possible outcomes of being 100% are still 50/50 because there are only two possible outcomes of 100% even though one of them may in fact be incorrect.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:35 am

Assateague has confused psychology with probability. makes no difference WHY a person buys 1 of the 100 tickets, only that all 100 are sold.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:55 am

If you believe that, then it should be simple to answer this question:


After you buy a lottery ticket, what are the only two possible responses when someone asks you if your lottery ticket won?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Feelin' Fowl » Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:13 pm

assateague wrote:If you believe that, then it should be simple to answer this question:


After you buy a lottery ticket, what are the only two possible responses when someone asks you if your lottery ticket won?


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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Tinner4 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:14 pm

assateague wrote:If you believe that, then it should be simple to answer this question:


After you buy a lottery ticket, what are the only two possible responses when someone asks you if your lottery ticket won?


Not jumping in on the debate but there could be more than two responses. They could answer, maybe or I don't know. They could lie, they could tell the truth.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:27 pm

But none of those responses impacts whether they won or lost. I could say "I have a ham sandwich" when someone asks if the world is still turning, but there are only two options, regardless: it is, or it isn't.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Westtennduckhunter » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:34 pm

assateague wrote:But none of those responses impacts whether they won or lost. I could say "I have a ham sandwich" when someone asks if the world is still turning, but there are only two options, regardless: it is, or it isn't.


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Re: Federal land projects

Postby The Duck Hammer » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:43 pm

assateague wrote:But none of those responses impacts whether they won or lost. I could say "I have a ham sandwich" when someone asks if the world is still turning, but there are only two options, regardless: it is, or it isn't.

LOL for real. :lol3: :clapping:
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Indaswamp wrote:easy...just manipulate the ruler to make the inch shorter so that 28" reads 30"..... :thumbsup:

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Underradar » Mon Sep 30, 2013 2:36 pm

Assa is as smart as the smartest computer, because he is thinking in binary code. On or off, yes or no, black or white, cheap or not cheap.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Cujo1 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:07 pm

Assa's new nickname=DosII

50/50
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:21 pm

Still wondering about that UniCorn. It'll be time to give it another try soon.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Cujo1 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:31 pm

assateague wrote:Still wondering about that UniCorn. It'll be time to give it another try soon.

50/50 its real :thumbsup:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:38 pm

Oh, it's real. The question is, will it work (which is still 50/50). I had it out a couple times last year, but no geese even flew anywhere to be seen, so have no clue about its efficacy yet. Or how long I'm going to have to fight the projected ticket.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:41 pm

assateague wrote:If you believe that, then it should be simple to answer this question:


After you buy a lottery ticket, what are the only two possible responses when someone asks you if your lottery ticket won?

in your example, the outcome is not known with certainty. Depending on the group of people assembled, it could be zero, or it could be 100. In a truly random drawing, the outcome is known. 1 person will win. period. not 2, not 3 and not 50. THAT is why it can be assigned a probability! It is not dependant on the emotional make up of the participants like in your example (which would produce a bell curve of probabilities depending on the person)
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