Indaswamp wrote:SMH...I give up....agree to disagree. It's pointless for me to continue explaining it. You'd fail statistics.
I think you actually mean you'd fail probability, not statistics.
But either way, an event can be weighted however you want. It doesn't matter to the outcome. A weighting is a prediction, nothing more. And furthermore, it is far from an absolute. You speak as if the weighting is something akin to the theory of gravity, but it is simply another subjective measure.
Get 50 people. Have 5 small boxes in front of them. Tell them there is a $100 bill in one of the boxes, and there are rattlesnakes in the other 4. Then tell them they may reach into a box, or they may leave. Some may still choose to go for the $100, maybe not, who knows. Now, tell them there is a stack of 10 $100 bills in one box. Tell them the same thing. Most likely, more would choose to risk reaching into a box. Repeat it one more time, with a stack of 100 $100 bills. I bet even more would choose to reach into a box. Maybe not, though. As soon as you pick a box, the other 4 boxes cease to exist. They no longer matter. When you choose a box and reach in, there are only two choices- you will grab a stack of benjamins, or you will not. If the dollars are in a different box, then you did NOT choose the one with the money.
But in each case, the traditional risk/reward "probability" is the same, yet people choose to behave differently. Because they do a personal assessment, and see if it's worth it. The "weighting" of the possible outcomes has far less to do with the choice than the individual themselves. So to speak of "weighting" and "odds" as if they are some inviolable "great determiner" is sort of silly. The only matter BEFORE the fact. And unless you've been paid for winning the lottery BEFORE the numbers are drawn, or have been paid for placing a bet BEFORE the game takes place, traditional "odds" really don't matter that much. You are ultimately left with only two outcomes, the things that you actually get paid for- and there are only two. Either you win, or you lose. That's all. 50/50.