Federal land projects

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:42 pm

And probability DOES NOT CARE WHO wins!!! It is what it is!
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:51 pm

Indaswamp wrote:And probability DOES NOT CARE WHO wins!!! It is what it is!



Nor does probability care WHERE the "1" in the "1 in 100" occurs. Only somewhere in the next 100 draws. Just as likely to be the next draw as the next to last draw.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:52 pm

Indaswamp wrote:in your example, the outcome is not known with certainty.



Yes it is. I said "won", past tense. The drawing is over. Did your ticket win?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:55 pm

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:And probability DOES NOT CARE WHO wins!!! It is what it is!



Nor does probability care WHERE the "1" in the "1 in 100" occurs. Only somewhere in the next 100 draws. Just as likely to be the next draw as the next to last draw.

there is only 1 drawing Assa.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:57 pm

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:in your example, the outcome is not known with certainty.



Yes it is. I said "won", past tense. The drawing is over. Did your ticket win?

You example with the $100 dollar bill and the rattlesnake is apples and oranges to a random drawing. They are nowhere even remotely the same.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:01 pm

BTW- today's DJIA close: 15129.67
you guessed wrong.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:10 pm

So The 50/50™ was correct. Good to know that it still hasn't been disproven. :lol3:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:14 pm

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:And probability DOES NOT CARE WHO wins!!! It is what it is!



Nor does probability care WHERE the "1" in the "1 in 100" occurs. Only somewhere in the next 100 draws. Just as likely to be the next draw as the next to last draw.

That is the game of Roulette, and a completely different set of odds apply.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:15 pm

assateague wrote:So The 50/50™ was correct. Good to know that it still hasn't been disproven. :lol3:

:hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: I has been disproven, You just can't comprehend Odds and Probability.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby WoodyWhiffingMG » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:16 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:So The 50/50™ was correct. Good to know that it still hasn't been disproven. :lol3:

:hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: I has been disproven, You just can't comprehend Odds and Probability.


Don't feel bad, Inda, you had a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby dave79 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:17 pm

Lets use the 1:1000 drawing. yes the odds are 1:1000, but it's either you win or you loose. But in most lotteries their are multiple winners, some for the grand prize, others 500, 100, 10, or a free ticket. But it still is either win or loose. I believe AT is not talking odds of winning, but rather of winning or losing which there is only two outcomes,50/50.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby sprigs4days » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:17 pm

Ok guy's...It's time to take it behind the woodshed
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:20 pm

dave79 wrote:Lets use the 1:1000 drawing. yes the odds are 1:1000, but it's either you win or you loose. But in most lotteries their are multiple winners, some for the grand prize, others 500, 100, 10, or a free ticket. But it still is either win or loose. I believe AT is not talking odds of winning, but rather of winning or losing which there is only two outcomes,50/50.

those "outcomes" are weighted. the odds of one occurring over the other are not even.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:27 pm

think of it like this, 100 people anty up 1 penny. The winner of a random drawing wins $1 dollar. your chances are 1%. when the winner is declared, you give you 1 penny (and your 1%) to the winner. He now has $1 dollar and a 100% chance of winning (because he won!).
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:28 pm

Exactly. Thus proving The 50/50. Yet again.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:30 pm

assateague wrote:Exactly. Thus proving The 50/50. Yet again.

you are hopeless Assa. If you want to predict which one of the 100 wins, that is a completely different set of odds.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:34 pm

Perhaps, in order to help this conversation along, you should post exactly what you think The 50/50™ is stating.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby sprigs4days » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:37 pm

50/50 this thread is never going to effing end.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:40 pm

50/50 you don't click on it next time.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby sprigs4days » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:56 pm

50/50 I do
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:01 pm

:lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby flightstopper » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:48 pm

Swamp the problem is you are confusing probability with The Law of 50/50. Probability is a false inflated set of hopes for someone who is unsure to try and justify their role in an event. Whatever the event may be, lotto ticket, marbles or a snake bite to the face, there are only two outcomes that are for certain. Win or loose, simply put 50/50.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby bighop » Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:15 am

flightstopper wrote:Swamp the problem is you are confusing probability with The Law of 50/50. Probability is a false inflated set of hopes for someone who is unsure to try and justify their role in an event. Whatever the event may be, lotto ticket, marbles or a snake bite to the face, there are only two outcomes that are for certain. Win or loose, simply put 50/50.

What if I break even on my lottery ticket?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:36 am

Your ticket still won. If you're out $1, you have to win $1 to "break even". Only two outcomes ever. 50/50.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby flightstopper » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:35 am

assateague wrote:Your ticket still won. If you're out $1, you have to win $1 to "break even". Only two outcomes ever. 50/50.


Bingo
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