Federal land projects

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:28 am

flightstopper wrote:
assateague wrote:Your ticket still won. If you're out $1, you have to win $1 to "break even". Only two outcomes ever. 50/50.


Bingo

there are as many "outcomes" as there are participants. That is your fatal flaw in your theory Assa. 100 people buy a ticket in a drawing of 100 tickets, there are 100 outcomes possible, not 2.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Montanafowler » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:36 am

Indaswamp wrote:there are as many "outcomes" as there are participants. That is your fatal flaw in your theory Assa. 100 people buy a ticket in a drawing of 100 tickets, there are 100 outcomes possible, not 2.


uh...what? Swamp, either your ticket will win or you will not win, there are not 100 possible outcomes. even if you had a ticket in your hand and got hit by a bus, your ticket will either win or not win.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:37 am

Montanafowler wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:there are as many "outcomes" as there are participants. That is your fatal flaw in your theory Assa. 100 people buy a ticket in a drawing of 100 tickets, there are 100 outcomes possible, not 2.


uh...what? Swamp, either your ticket will win or you will not win, there are not 100 possible outcomes. even if you had a ticket in your hand and got hit by a bus, your ticket will either win or not win.

:rolleyes: you too huh... :help:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Bill Herian » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:40 am

Does it matter which of the 99 other tickets are drawn?

The outcome is the same in all 99 cases.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:42 am

Bill Herian wrote:Does it matter which of the 99 other tickets are drawn?

The outcome is the same in all 99 cases.

No, it does not matter which one wins.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:44 am

a coin toss has two possible outcomes. heads I win, tails I loose. two possible outcomes, 50/50. a drawing of 100 has 100 possible outcomes, could be 1, could be 49 could be 28....or any of the other 97 possibilities!
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Montanafowler » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:49 am

Indaswamp wrote:a coin toss has two possible outcomes. heads I win, tails I loose. two possible outcomes, 50/50. a drawing of 100 has 100 possible outcomes, could be 1, could be 49 could be 28....or any of the other 97 possibilities!


Either it is 1 or it is not 1, 49 or not 49, 28 or not 28. It either is or it is not.

The 50/50™
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:51 am

Montanafowler wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:a coin toss has two possible outcomes. heads I win, tails I loose. two possible outcomes, 50/50. a drawing of 100 has 100 possible outcomes, could be 1, could be 49 could be 28....or any of the other 97 possibilities!


Either it is 1 or it is not 1, 49 or not 49, 28 or not 28. It either is or it is not.

The 50/50™

you just posted three possible outcomes....there are 97 more that are possible. That's the thing about random drawings, you never know who will win, but the odds never change, but they are RANDOM!
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:08 am

Put in "Assa speak" there are 100 possible 50/50 outcomes.....and they are all happening AT THE SAME TIME! Thus you have a 1% chance of winning. 1 event, not 100 separate events....
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Montanafowler » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:37 am

Indaswamp wrote:
Montanafowler wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:a coin toss has two possible outcomes. heads I win, tails I loose. two possible outcomes, 50/50. a drawing of 100 has 100 possible outcomes, could be 1, could be 49 could be 28....or any of the other 97 possibilities!


Either it is 1 or it is not 1, 49 or not 49, 28 or not 28. It either is or it is not.

The 50/50™

you just posted three possible outcomes....there are 97 more that are possible. That's the thing about random drawings, you never know who will win, but the odds never change, but they are RANDOM!


Those are just possibilities. The outcome is that whatever you hold is either it is or it is not, and that is always certain. 50/50.
what you are talking about is the Theory of Alternate Disparities™, in which The 50/50™ still stands.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby D Comeaux » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:45 am

Image

Duck Season, please...... hurry.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:51 am

D Comeaux wrote:Image

Duck Season, please...... hurry.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Crap on a Cracker!! ROFLMAO!
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:12 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
flightstopper wrote:
assateague wrote:Your ticket still won. If you're out $1, you have to win $1 to "break even". Only two outcomes ever. 50/50.


Bingo

there are as many "outcomes" as there are participants. That is your fatal flaw in your theory Assa. 100 people buy a ticket in a drawing of 100 tickets, there are 100 outcomes possible, not 2.



No. There is no fatal flaw, because there is no flaw.

The concept of "probability" does not exist until a question has been phrased, an outcome postulated. Until that time, there is just "life". A random sea of events, interacting, happening, not happening, whatever. Until one says "Will I win the lottery?", or "will it rain tomorrow?", there is no such thing as probability. And as soon as that particular question is posed, then you have automatically limited the outcome to only two possibilities- did or did not. You can't very well measure an outcome BEFORE something happens. And when it HAS happened, you are left with only two possibilities- did or did not.

Go read up on probability wave functions, and when they collapse.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Underradar » Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:22 pm

In the Multiverse, there are no probabilities. Everything happens. Everything.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:56 pm

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
flightstopper wrote:
assateague wrote:Your ticket still won. If you're out $1, you have to win $1 to "break even". Only two outcomes ever. 50/50.


Bingo

there are as many "outcomes" as there are participants. That is your fatal flaw in your theory Assa. 100 people buy a ticket in a drawing of 100 tickets, there are 100 outcomes possible, not 2.



No. There is no fatal flaw, because there is no flaw.

The concept of "probability" does not exist until a question has been phrased, an outcome postulated. Until that time, there is just "life". A random sea of events, interacting, happening, not happening, whatever. Until one says "Will I win the lottery?", or "will it rain tomorrow?", there is no such thing as probability. And as soon as that particular question is posed, then you have automatically limited the outcome to only two possibilities- did or did not. You can't very well measure an outcome BEFORE something happens. And when it HAS happened, you are left with only two possibilities- did or did not.

Go read up on probability wave functions, and when they collapse.

when a probability wave function collapses, the "event" happens...i.e. 1 winner (100% chance) and however many losers there are (0% chance.)

Derivatives are lost on you Assa....As the sample size approaches infinity, the probability becomes mathematical. This is how insurance companies make money, this is how Vegas always makes money.If there were no way to gauge odds, insurance would not be possible and Vegas would never make money.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby aunt betty » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:58 pm

Indaswamp wrote:a coin toss has two possible outcomes. heads I win, tails I loose. two possible outcomes, 50/50. a drawing of 100 has 100 possible outcomes, could be 1, could be 49 could be 28....or any of the other 97 possibilities!
WRONG!

You can toss a coin and have it stand on edge.

Have played backgammon many times and if you play enough...eventually a six-sided die will stand on it's corner.

The 50/50 is flawed in soooo many ways. That's why it's not in any math books except the fictional one in assa's head.
Last edited by aunt betty on Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:00 pm

aunt betty wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:a coin toss has two possible outcomes. heads I win, tails I loose. two possible outcomes, 50/50. a drawing of 100 has 100 possible outcomes, could be 1, could be 49 could be 28....or any of the other 97 possibilities!
WRONG!

You can toss a coin and have it stand on edge.

Have played backgammon many times and if you play enough...eventually a six-sided die will stand on it's corner.

The 50/50 is flawed in soooo many ways. That's why it's not in any math books except the fictional one in assa's head.

true....thanks for catching that, it was the best analogy I could think of off the top of my head. :thumbsup:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby aunt betty » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:12 pm

AT carefully defined what the 50/50 covers...it only works for situations with only two possible outcomes.
Now how many real-life situations only have two possible outcomes?
Games? Don't forget about "the tie".
Don't forget about the entire team getting ejected from the game and forfeiting.
In reality there are no situations that the 50/50 applies to UNLESS WE ALLOW ASSA TO BEND THE RULES OR HIS DEFINITION.

That's the truth. I, Betty, have spoken. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:26 pm

AB, this is for Assa...
Image

maybe Spinnerman can explain that to him...
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby flightstopper » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:53 pm

aunt betty wrote:AT carefully defined what the 50/50 covers...it only works for situations with only two possible outcomes.
Now how many real-life situations only have two possible outcomes?
Games? Don't forget about "the tie".
Don't forget about the entire team getting ejected from the game and forfeiting.
In reality there are no situations that the 50/50 applies to UNLESS WE ALLOW ASSA TO BEND THE RULES OR HIS DEFINITION.

That's the truth. I, Betty, have spoken. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

There is only one truth. Mine. I have strong iron...lol



The only logical way to solve a tie is a bareknuckle fight to the death. 50/50 you live, law stands unbroken.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Montanafowler » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:03 pm

aunt betty wrote:AT carefully defined what the 50/50 covers...it only works for situations with only two possible outcomes.
Now how many real-life situations only have two possible outcomes?
Games? Don't forget about "the tie".
Don't forget about the entire team getting ejected from the game and forfeiting.
In reality there are no situations that the 50/50 applies to UNLESS WE ALLOW ASSA TO BEND THE RULES OR HIS DEFINITION.

That's the truth. I, Betty, have spoken. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

There is only one truth. Mine. I have strong iron...lol


"the tie" falls under the Theory of Medium©.

"The Tie" sets out to compromise to satisfy both parties involved rather than reaching a decision. Therefore, it leaves both parties involved relatively unhappy about the compromise compared to the outcome of a definitive decision.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby aunt betty » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:18 pm

flightstopper wrote:
aunt betty wrote:AT carefully defined what the 50/50 covers...it only works for situations with only two possible outcomes.
Now how many real-life situations only have two possible outcomes?
Games? Don't forget about "the tie".
Don't forget about the entire team getting ejected from the game and forfeiting.
In reality there are no situations that the 50/50 applies to UNLESS WE ALLOW ASSA TO BEND THE RULES OR HIS DEFINITION.

That's the truth. I, Betty, have spoken. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

There is only one truth. Mine. I have strong iron...lol



The only logical way to solve a tie is a bareknuckle fight to the death. 50/50 you live, law stands unbroken.
Ever hear of a "double-knockout"?
It's possible that both 'contestants' could kill each other and the 50/50 fails yet again.
BAM!!!
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:18 pm

I've asked Swamp, and I'll ask you, too, Acorn:


Briefly explain what you think The 50/50™ entails. Because frankly, you and Inda are starting to look a little bit foolish. Swamp, this goes for you, too. I've asked before, I'm asking again. Explain what you think The 50/50™ is.

Because I'm gonna tell you, neither one of you gets it. Not even close.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Montanafowler » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:23 pm

assateague wrote:I've asked Swamp, and I'll ask you, too, Acorn:


Briefly explain what you think The 50/50™ entails. Because frankly, you and Inda are starting to look a little bit foolish. Swamp, this goes for you, too. I've asked before, I'm asking again. Explain what you think The 50/50™ is.

Because I'm gonna tell you, neither one of you gets it. Not even close.



Assa, am i correct on the tie outcome falling under Medium?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:26 pm

assateague wrote:I've asked Swamp, and I'll ask you, too, Acorn:


Briefly explain what you think The 50/50™ entails. Because frankly, you and Inda are starting to look a little bit foolish. Swamp, this goes for you, too. I've asked before, I'm asking again. Explain what you think The 50/50™ is.

Because I'm gonna tell you, neither one of you gets it. Not even close.

Assa, any time you use the word "chance", then odds are implicitly implied.

**edit..damn auto correct!
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