Federal land projects

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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:47 pm

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:alright, Let's take the daily finishing numbers on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Take the Penny column. You have 10 possible digits to choose from. You guess what the final will be at the close of the bell for the next ten days. If you are correct that you have a 50/50 chance of being correct, you should be able to be right at least 5 times over the next ten days. Good luck. You are going to need it. BTW-post your guess by noon of each work day.


I say that the odds at 1 in 10 that you will be correct.....


50/50 I'm right half the time.

good, then start picking numbers and I'll keep track of it....
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:34 pm

I'll pick them right now, but just to be clear- you're saying that I'll be right on 5 of the 10 days, correct?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby reb » Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:40 pm

assateague wrote:I'll pick them right now, but just to be clear- you're saying that I'll be right on 5 of the 10 days, correct?

50/50
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:51 pm

assateague wrote:I'll pick them right now, but just to be clear- you're saying that I'll be right on 5 of the 10 days, correct?

No, you are claiming you will be right 5 out of 10 days....as implied buy your "50/50". half your guesses will correct and half your guesses will be wrong. could go either way.



I will be surprised if you are correct more than once.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:55 pm

if you want to guess them all right now, that's fine. I will see how many times you are correct.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:20 am

By 50/50, you are claiming you will be right 50% 0f the time and you will be wrong 50% 0f the time. humor me and pick some numbers.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:23 am

Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:I'll pick them right now, but just to be clear- you're saying that I'll be right on 5 of the 10 days, correct?

No, you are claiming you will be right 5 out of 10 days....as implied buy your "50/50". half your guesses will correct and half your guesses will be wrong. could go either way.



I will be surprised if you are correct more than once.



I'll thank you to not tell me what I'm claiming. Nor did I imply that. I stated (and it has yet to be disproven, because it can't be) that in any stated situation, there are only two possible outcomes- did, or did not. And that when there are only two possible outcomes, that the odds are 50/50. Thus, The 50/50™

So, if the question is "will I be right Monday", here is my number: 3

If the question is, "will I be right 5 out of 10 days", here are my numbers:
9/30: 3
10/1: 8
10/2: 4
10/3: 9
10/4: 1
10/7: 6
10/8: 6
10/9: 5
10/10: 2
10/11: 7

But I'll tell you right now, there's no way that The 50/50™ will be wrong.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:25 am

Indaswamp wrote:By 50/50, you are claiming you will be right 50% 0f the time and you will be wrong 50% 0f the time. humor me and pick some numbers.



No. I'm not. That's what you seem to understand it to be, but I assure you, that's not it. The "traditional" concept of odds ONLY applies BEFORE there is an outcome. As soon as there is an outcome, the probabililty function has collapsed, and you are left with only two possible alternatives: did, or did not. And the outcome is the only thing that matters.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:26 am

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:I'll pick them right now, but just to be clear- you're saying that I'll be right on 5 of the 10 days, correct?

No, you are claiming you will be right 5 out of 10 days....as implied buy your "50/50". half your guesses will correct and half your guesses will be wrong. could go either way.



I will be surprised if you are correct more than once.



I'll thank you to not tell me what I'm claiming. Nor did I imply that. I stated (and it has yet to be disproven, because it can't be) that in any stated situation, there are only two possible outcomes- did, or did not. And that when there are only two possible outcomes, that the odds are 50/50. Thus, The 50/50™

So, if the question is "will I be right Monday", here is my number: 3

If the question is, "will I be right 5 out of 10 days", here are my numbers:
9/30: 3
10/1: 8
10/2: 4
10/3: 9
10/4: 1
10/7: 6
10/8: 6
10/9: 5
10/10: 2
10/11: 7

But I'll tell you right now, there's no way that The 50/50™ will be wrong.

did or did not happen are not odds. Odds have to do with probability.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:27 am

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:By 50/50, you are claiming you will be right 50% 0f the time and you will be wrong 50% 0f the time. humor me and pick some numbers.



No. I'm not. That's what you seem to understand it to be, but I assure you, that's not it. The "traditional" concept of odds ONLY applies BEFORE there is an outcome. As soon as there is an outcome, the probabililty function has collapsed, and you are left with only two possible alternatives: did, or did not. And the outcome is the only thing that matters.

as the number of samples approaches infinity, the odds become mathematically certain. That's a fact. And from that it has predictive value.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:29 am

thank you for posting the numbers. Of those guesses, how many times do you believe you will pick the correct digit?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:36 am

there are two possible outcomes yes, but they are not equally weighted. you have a 10% chance of guessing the correct digit and a 90% chance of guessing the wrong one....repeating over 10 days.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:42 am

Listen to Leroy....
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 1:52 am

Here you go Assa...
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Sun Sep 29, 2013 7:03 am

Indaswamp wrote:thank you for posting the numbers. Of those guesses, how many times do you believe you will pick the correct digit?




I predict I will be right 4 times.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Sun Sep 29, 2013 7:11 am

Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:By 50/50, you are claiming you will be right 50% 0f the time and you will be wrong 50% 0f the time. humor me and pick some numbers.



No. I'm not. That's what you seem to understand it to be, but I assure you, that's not it. The "traditional" concept of odds ONLY applies BEFORE there is an outcome. As soon as there is an outcome, the probabililty function has collapsed, and you are left with only two possible alternatives: did, or did not. And the outcome is the only thing that matters.

as the number of samples approaches infinity, the odds become mathematically certain. That's a fact. And from that it has predictive value.



Predictive value applies only before something happens. When it is all "theoretical". Which is basically useless. The only thing which matters is the outcome. And at that point, there are only two- did or did not. What was "predicted" before it happened matters not one iota.

I'll ask you again-
In the "traditional" discussion of odds you speak of, you mentioned "predictive value". So in a, for example, 1 in 100 situation, where the "1" is the desired outcome, what do the "traditional" models tell you about where that "1" will fall?

You speak of "weighting". Where in the drawing of 100 numbers is the "1" weighted? Where will it fall/be drawn? First? 37th? 98th? The fact is, there is no way to tell, because EVERY position in that 100 draws has the same chance of being "the" number. It will be, or it won't be.

I reach into a bag with 100 numbered chips. You would say that there is a 1 in 100 chance of it being "17". That is now the only outcome you care about, as it was defined- is it "17"? But AS SOON AS a hand reaches in and pulls a chip, there are no longer 100 choices, there is only 1- the chip in the hand. And as the question was defined- "will it be the 17?", there are only two possible outcomes- it is, or it isn't. 50/50.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Bigpuddin43 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 7:31 am

Basically before he pics he has a 1/10 chance to pic the correct number but once he pics it he has a 50/50 chance he is correct because now those other numbers don't matter and he is either right or wrong. After the first day it has absolutly no bearing on the second so you are just repeating the process.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby ks_waterfowler » Sun Sep 29, 2013 9:17 am

Indaswamp wrote:
waterfowlman wrote:
assateague wrote:Yup.


It's also 50/50 you're gonna shoot a Pintail this season my friend.

Naw...that's more like 1/1 million....

So your sayin there's a chance
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:47 am

Bigpuddin43 wrote:Basically before he pics he has a 1/10 chance to pic the correct number but once he pics it he has a 10/90 chance he is correct because now those other numbers don't matter and he is either right or wrong. After the first day it has absolutly no bearing on the second so you are just repeating the process.

FIFY...the odds do not change!
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:51 am

assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:By 50/50, you are claiming you will be right 50% 0f the time and you will be wrong 50% 0f the time. humor me and pick some numbers.



No. I'm not. That's what you seem to understand it to be, but I assure you, that's not it. The "traditional" concept of odds ONLY applies BEFORE there is an outcome. As soon as there is an outcome, the probabililty function has collapsed, and you are left with only two possible alternatives: did, or did not. And the outcome is the only thing that matters.

as the number of samples approaches infinity, the odds become mathematically certain. That's a fact. And from that it has predictive value.



Predictive value applies only before something happens. When it is all "theoretical". Which is basically useless. The only thing which matters is the outcome. And at that point, there are only two- did or did not. What was "predicted" before it happened matters not one iota.

I'll ask you again-
In the "traditional" discussion of odds you speak of, you mentioned "predictive value". So in a, for example, 1 in 100 situation, where the "1" is the desired outcome, what do the "traditional" models tell you about where that "1" will fall?

You speak of "weighting". Where in the drawing of 100 numbers is the "1" weighted? Where will it fall/be drawn? First? 37th? 98th? The fact is, there is no way to tell, because EVERY position in that 100 draws has the same chance of being "the" number. It will be, or it won't be.

I reach into a bag with 100 numbered chips. You would say that there is a 1 in 100 chance of it being "17". That is now the only outcome you care about, as it was defined- is it "17"? But AS SOON AS a hand reaches in and pulls a chip, there are no longer 100 choices, there is only 1- the chip in the hand. And as the question was defined- "will it be the 17?", there are only two possible outcomes- it is, or it isn't. 50/50.

does not matter where it falls assa...the odds of it happening do not change. if 100 people pull the a number from 1-100, someone is a winner. the chance of it being you is 1 in 100.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:19 pm

You are also wrong about after the fact...After the event, the winners chances go to 100 and the losers go to 0.

in a random drawing of numbers from 1-100, hand the numbers out to 100 people. Do you believe that your chances of winning are higher than the next guy?
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Bigpuddin43 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 1:06 pm

But the odds of you being right is still 50/50. You are concerned with the odds of them picking the right number he has already picked so his odds of it being right is either right or wrong. 50/50. This is basically a half full half empty question. You look at his number as a 1/10 chance of being right. He looks at it as it is a winner or a loser.
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby Broken Paddle » Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:14 pm

WHOLLY CRAP, has this train derailed, off a high bridge even! :eek:

Tinner, you need to change the the thread name to, the great debate! :hi:
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby OGblackcloud » Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:40 pm

Broken Paddle wrote:WHOLLY CRAP, has this train derailed, off a high bridge even! :eek:

Tinner, you need to change the the thread name to, the great debate! :hi:

50/50 on the name change
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Re: Federal land projects

Postby assateague » Sun Sep 29, 2013 3:49 pm

50/50 on the greatness.
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