Indaswamp wrote: assateague wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:By 50/50, you are claiming you will be right 50% 0f the time and you will be wrong 50% 0f the time. humor me and pick some numbers.
No. I'm not. That's what you seem to understand it to be, but I assure you, that's not it. The "traditional" concept of odds ONLY applies BEFORE there is an outcome. As soon as there is an outcome, the probabililty function has collapsed, and you are left with only two possible alternatives: did, or did not. And the outcome is the only thing that matters.
as the number of samples approaches infinity, the odds become mathematically certain. That's a fact. And from that it has predictive value.
Predictive value applies only before something happens. When it is all "theoretical". Which is basically useless. The only thing which matters is the outcome. And at that point, there are only two- did or did not. What was "predicted" before it happened matters not one iota.
I'll ask you again-
In the "traditional" discussion of odds you speak of, you mentioned "predictive value". So in a, for example, 1 in 100 situation, where the "1" is the desired outcome, what do the "traditional" models tell you about where that "1" will fall?
You speak of "weighting". Where in the drawing of 100 numbers is the "1" weighted? Where will it fall/be drawn? First? 37th? 98th? The fact is, there is no way to tell, because EVERY position in that 100 draws has the same chance of being "the" number. It will be, or it won't be.
I reach into a bag with 100 numbered chips. You would say that there is a 1 in 100 chance of it being "17". That is now the only outcome you care about, as it was defined- is it "17"? But AS SOON AS a hand reaches in and pulls a chip, there are no longer 100 choices, there is only 1- the chip in the hand. And as the question was defined- "will it be the 17?", there are only two possible outcomes- it is, or it isn't. 50/50.