Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby SpinnerMan » Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:29 am

Minneguy wrote:With the tail wind of 10 mph, the lead is going to be almost the same because the wind is acting on both the shot and the bird, but I found that there is a range. If the bird is flying constant, and the wind only acts on the shot it will take 4.8 feet of lead. If the shot is constant and the bird is acted on by the wind, it will be 6.2 feet. That was tough and I'm almost certain I am incorrect but who knows haha

Ground speed is what you see. Air speed is what the bird feels. A bird that can fly 40 mph at top speed can fly at a maximum of 20 mph ground speed into a 20 mph and 60 mph with a tail wind. That's why they land into the wind. Keep their air speed up so they don't drop too fast, but minimize their ground speed so they touchdown softer.

My question is essentially this and I haven't seen the data. If you shoot at a fixed target with a cross wind, how far will it shift the center of the pattern. That's what you'd have to add or subtract from your lead when the calculation is based on ground speed. If you are using air speed, a duck hanging in a 20 mph head wind, has a 20 mph air speed and a 0 mph ground speed. The center of pattern will have to be adjusted to account for the effects of the wind. If the wind is at your back and he's coming straight at you, just put it right on him. If he's crossing, you are still going to need to lead him even though he looks like he is standing still. I just don't know if it is inches or feet. I think it's enough that it matters, but not as much zero wind and the duck having a ground speed of 20 mph.

BTW, good luck on your tests.
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby The Pas Swamp Donkey » Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:33 am

It's hard to tell from the angle, but I think the second shot has about a 12 to 14 foot lead on the bird. The angle makes the distance look less, but I know that the angle shots are for me easier to make, as the difference in virtual lead is less, and the pattern becomes your friend.

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When hunting bluebills and cans off of a point back home, with a strong north wind, we used to give them "cadillac" leads, which is about 18-20 foot, when they came pouring down across the blocks with a 30 or 40 mph tail wind. Not uncommon to blow off a box or more of shells to get a limit. Never get more than 1 shot per flock because of the speed.
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Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Minneguy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:37 am

SpinnerMan wrote:
Minneguy wrote:With the tail wind of 10 mph, the lead is going to be almost the same because the wind is acting on both the shot and the bird, but I found that there is a range. If the bird is flying constant, and the wind only acts on the shot it will take 4.8 feet of lead. If the shot is constant and the bird is acted on by the wind, it will be 6.2 feet. That was tough and I'm almost certain I am incorrect but who knows haha

Ground speed is what you see. Air speed is what the bird feels. A bird that can fly 40 mph at top speed can fly at a maximum of 20 mph ground speed into a 20 mph and 60 mph with a tail wind. That's why they land into the wind. Keep their air speed up so they don't drop too fast, but minimize their ground speed so they touchdown softer.

My question is essentially this and I haven't seen the data. If you shoot at a fixed target with a cross wind, how far will it shift the center of the pattern. That's what you'd have to add or subtract from your lead when the calculation is based on ground speed. If you are using air speed, a duck hanging in a 20 mph head wind, has a 20 mph air speed and a 0 mph ground speed. The center of pattern will have to be adjusted to account for the effects of the wind. If the wind is at your back and he's coming straight at you, just put it right on him. If he's crossing, you are still going to need to lead him even though he looks like he is standing still. I just don't know if it is inches or feet. I think it's enough that it matters, but not as much zero wind and the duck having a ground speed of 20 mph.

BTW, good luck on your tests.

Ahh you learn something every day! I had no idea that there was a difference between ground speed and air speed! That makes a ton of sense. Realistically the calculations I am doing then are nearly pointless in the real world unless there is no wind acting on the shot or the bird.
Thanks spinner, I appreciate both the tidbit of knowledge and the well wishing


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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Papachessie » Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:26 am

Minneguy wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Minneguy wrote:With the tail wind of 10 mph, the lead is going to be almost the same because the wind is acting on both the shot and the bird, but I found that there is a range. If the bird is flying constant, and the wind only acts on the shot it will take 4.8 feet of lead. If the shot is constant and the bird is acted on by the wind, it will be 6.2 feet. That was tough and I'm almost certain I am incorrect but who knows haha

Ground speed is what you see. Air speed is what the bird feels. A bird that can fly 40 mph at top speed can fly at a maximum of 20 mph ground speed into a 20 mph and 60 mph with a tail wind. That's why they land into the wind. Keep their air speed up so they don't drop too fast, but minimize their ground speed so they touchdown softer.

My question is essentially this and I haven't seen the data. If you shoot at a fixed target with a cross wind, how far will it shift the center of the pattern. That's what you'd have to add or subtract from your lead when the calculation is based on ground speed. If you are using air speed, a duck hanging in a 20 mph head wind, has a 20 mph air speed and a 0 mph ground speed. The center of pattern will have to be adjusted to account for the effects of the wind. If the wind is at your back and he's coming straight at you, just put it right on him. If he's crossing, you are still going to need to lead him even though he looks like he is standing still. I just don't know if it is inches or feet. I think it's enough that it matters, but not as much zero wind and the duck having a ground speed of 20 mph.

BTW, good luck on your tests.

Ahh you learn something every day! I had no idea that there was a difference between ground speed and air speed! That makes a ton of sense. Realistically the calculations I am doing then are nearly pointless in the real world unless there is no wind acting on the shot or the bird.
Thanks spinner, I appreciate both the tidbit of knowledge and the well wishing


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If the wind has the same effect on your shot as it does on the duck, then the point is moot (although I'm pretty sure it affects one more than the other).
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Maxgold » Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:33 am

Another way to become one with your gun is to sleep with it, which I'm sure most of us have done. I know I have.
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby SpinnerMan » Sun Dec 15, 2013 10:41 am

Minneguy wrote:Ahh you learn something every day! I had no idea that there was a difference between ground speed and air speed! That makes a ton of sense. Realistically the calculations I am doing then are nearly pointless in the real world unless there is no wind acting on the shot or the bird.
Thanks spinner, I appreciate both the tidbit of knowledge and the well wishing

Sometimes you can really see the difference on an airplane.

Planes circle into the wind like ducks for the same reason, but nothing they can do with a cross wind. One of my last flights we were coming in noticeable off parallel to the runway because of the crosswind.

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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Minneguy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:27 am

Maxgold wrote:Another way to become one with your gun is to sleep with it, which I'm sure most of us have done. I know I have.

Lol I sleep with mine every night. Really upsets the girlfriend when I choose to cuddle with it and the dog over her.... I have no idea why?


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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby OGblackcloud » Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:31 am

When your gun becomes an extension of your body you will see many fowl fall
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby clampdaddy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:52 am

I missed this shot once and always wondered how much I missed by. I used about a 10 foot lead but the damp alfalfa field didn't give me any idea of where the bullet impacted.

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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Minneguy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 12:46 pm

Clamp daddy, what kind of run? Coyotes have been recorded up to 43 at a dead sprint, and their average trot is 12-18 mph.



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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby SpinnerMan » Sun Dec 15, 2013 1:20 pm

Minneguy wrote:Clamp daddy, what kind of run? Coyotes have been recorded up to 43 at a dead sprint, and their average trot is 12-18 mph.

I'm assuming this is after they have already been shot at once, so I know if it were me, I'd be going about 40, so probably about 90 or so. :yes:
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby jehler » Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:15 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Minneguy wrote:With the tail wind of 10 mph, the lead is going to be almost the same because the wind is acting on both the shot and the bird, but I found that there is a range. If the bird is flying constant, and the wind only acts on the shot it will take 4.8 feet of lead. If the shot is constant and the bird is acted on by the wind, it will be 6.2 feet. That was tough and I'm almost certain I am incorrect but who knows haha

Ground speed is what you see. Air speed is what the bird feels. A bird that can fly 40 mph at top speed can fly at a maximum of 20 mph ground speed into a 20 mph and 60 mph with a tail wind. That's why they land into the wind. Keep their air speed up so they don't drop too fast, but minimize their ground speed so they touchdown softer.

My question is essentially this and I haven't seen the data. If you shoot at a fixed target with a cross wind, how far will it shift the center of the pattern. That's what you'd have to add or subtract from your lead when the calculation is based on ground speed. If you are using air speed, a duck hanging in a 20 mph head wind, has a 20 mph air speed and a 0 mph ground speed. The center of pattern will have to be adjusted to account for the effects of the wind. If the wind is at your back and he's coming straight at you, just put it right on him. If he's crossing, you are still going to need to lead him even though he looks like he is standing still. I just don't know if it is inches or feet. I think it's enough that it matters, but not as much zero wind and the duck having a ground speed of 20 mph.

BTW, good luck on your tests.

Here is a some data with a 10 mph crosswind spinner, I am a shotshell ballistics nerd, have several different softwares, lots of good info in them
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1387138510.527822.jpg
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby jehler » Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:16 pm

I have shot at and missed a scoter that was on the water in a 40 knot crosswind, the pattern was about 2' down wind at 35ish yards
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Minneguy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:30 pm

Jehler that's awesome! I like using software type that kinda stuff lol


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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby jehler » Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:38 pm

Minneguy wrote:Jehler that's awesome! I like using software type that kinda stuff lol


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The one above is no longer available, but, there is a software developed by a member here that is fantastic called kpy ballistics, I highly recommend it

Both give me energy, energy density, projected ballistics gel penetration as well as lots if other useful info, great for comparing one load to the next. I highly recommend it
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Papachessie » Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:17 pm

jehler wrote:I have shot at and missed a scoter that was on the water in a 40 knot crosswind, the pattern was about 2' down wind at 35ish yards

So, if that Scroter was flying at 80mph due to a 40mph tail wind, which was a cross wind for you, would you lead him as if he was flying at 40mph in a no wind situation, due to the wind drift of the shot?
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby clampdaddy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:23 pm

Minneguy wrote:Clamp daddy, what kind of run? Coyotes have been recorded up to 43 at a dead sprint, and their average trot is 12-18 mph.



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It was definitely a dead sprint, but maybe subtract a couple miles per hour for the 5 inch high alfalfa he was running through. Let's call it 35.
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Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Minneguy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:31 pm

Hey clamp daddy
at a coyote land speed of 35 mph and a 200 yard bullet velocity of 2304, that coyote would require about 11 feet of lead.
At 40 mph it would take 12 feet,
At 43 mph( fastest recorded coyote) it would take 13.6 feet of lead.
That's a heck of a lead.... No wonder most of them coyotes on the run take multiple shots


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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby OGblackcloud » Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:37 pm

20 or30 rnd mag. put as much fire down range as possible your bound to hit him at least once
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby clampdaddy » Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:58 pm

Minneguy wrote:Hey clamp daddy
at a coyote land speed of 35 mph and a 200 yard bullet velocity of 2304, that coyote would require about 11 feet of lead.
At 40 mph it would take 12 feet,
At 43 mph( fastest recorded coyote) it would take 13.6 feet of lead.
That's a heck of a lead.... No wonder most of them coyotes on the run take multiple shots


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Thanks. Looks like my lead wasn't to far off, I just plain missed.
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby jehler » Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:06 pm

Papachessie wrote:
jehler wrote:I have shot at and missed a scoter that was on the water in a 40 knot crosswind, the pattern was about 2' down wind at 35ish yards

So, if that Scroter was flying at 80mph due to a 40mph tail wind, which was a cross wind for you, would you lead him as if he was flying at 40mph in a no wind situation, due to the wind drift of the shot?

no, he will be gone befroe your gun is shouldered, trust me
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby Papachessie » Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:19 pm

jehler wrote:
Papachessie wrote:
jehler wrote:I have shot at and missed a scoter that was on the water in a 40 knot crosswind, the pattern was about 2' down wind at 35ish yards

So, if that Scroter was flying at 80mph due to a 40mph tail wind, which was a cross wind for you, would you lead him as if he was flying at 40mph in a no wind situation, due to the wind drift of the shot?

no, he will be gone befroe your gun is shouldered, trust me

Hypothetically.

I pass shot Snows in a 40mph tail wind approx. 40yrds up and killed 5 in my first 7 shots and then I don't want to talk about what happened with the rest of the shells I was carrying. :lol3:
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby SpinnerMan » Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:22 pm

jehler wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Minneguy wrote:With the tail wind of 10 mph, the lead is going to be almost the same because the wind is acting on both the shot and the bird, but I found that there is a range. If the bird is flying constant, and the wind only acts on the shot it will take 4.8 feet of lead. If the shot is constant and the bird is acted on by the wind, it will be 6.2 feet. That was tough and I'm almost certain I am incorrect but who knows haha

Ground speed is what you see. Air speed is what the bird feels. A bird that can fly 40 mph at top speed can fly at a maximum of 20 mph ground speed into a 20 mph and 60 mph with a tail wind. That's why they land into the wind. Keep their air speed up so they don't drop too fast, but minimize their ground speed so they touchdown softer.

My question is essentially this and I haven't seen the data. If you shoot at a fixed target with a cross wind, how far will it shift the center of the pattern. That's what you'd have to add or subtract from your lead when the calculation is based on ground speed. If you are using air speed, a duck hanging in a 20 mph head wind, has a 20 mph air speed and a 0 mph ground speed. The center of pattern will have to be adjusted to account for the effects of the wind. If the wind is at your back and he's coming straight at you, just put it right on him. If he's crossing, you are still going to need to lead him even though he looks like he is standing still. I just don't know if it is inches or feet. I think it's enough that it matters, but not as much zero wind and the duck having a ground speed of 20 mph.

BTW, good luck on your tests.

Here is a some data with a 10 mph crosswind spinner, I am a shotshell ballistics nerd, have several different softwares, lots of good info in them
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1387138510.527822.jpg

Thanks. That's exactly what I was looking for.

Could you run it at 20 mph cross wind?
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby jehler » Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:54 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
jehler wrote:
SpinnerMan wrote:
Minneguy wrote:With the tail wind of 10 mph, the lead is going to be almost the same because the wind is acting on both the shot and the bird, but I found that there is a range. If the bird is flying constant, and the wind only acts on the shot it will take 4.8 feet of lead. If the shot is constant and the bird is acted on by the wind, it will be 6.2 feet. That was tough and I'm almost certain I am incorrect but who knows haha

Ground speed is what you see. Air speed is what the bird feels. A bird that can fly 40 mph at top speed can fly at a maximum of 20 mph ground speed into a 20 mph and 60 mph with a tail wind. That's why they land into the wind. Keep their air speed up so they don't drop too fast, but minimize their ground speed so they touchdown softer.

My question is essentially this and I haven't seen the data. If you shoot at a fixed target with a cross wind, how far will it shift the center of the pattern. That's what you'd have to add or subtract from your lead when the calculation is based on ground speed. If you are using air speed, a duck hanging in a 20 mph head wind, has a 20 mph air speed and a 0 mph ground speed. The center of pattern will have to be adjusted to account for the effects of the wind. If the wind is at your back and he's coming straight at you, just put it right on him. If he's crossing, you are still going to need to lead him even though he looks like he is standing still. I just don't know if it is inches or feet. I think it's enough that it matters, but not as much zero wind and the duck having a ground speed of 20 mph.

BTW, good luck on your tests.

Here is a some data with a 10 mph crosswind spinner, I am a shotshell ballistics nerd, have several different softwares, lots of good info in them
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1387138510.527822.jpg

Thanks. That's exactly what I was looking for.

Could you run it at 20 mph cross wind?
dont think so, that software is very dated, I can enter temp and altitude as variables but that's it (as far as I know). There is some cool stuff though, like animated target crossing thorough shot strings and such.
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Re: Calculating lead distance at various speeds and distance

Postby SpinnerMan » Mon Dec 16, 2013 7:22 am

Thanks again.

That data is interesting. And my guess it is more than double going from 10 to 20, so it's probably more than 1.5' at 40 yards. That's definitely enough to notice if you're a decent shot.
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