Weather this weekend

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Weather this weekend

Postby va marsh rat » Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:55 pm

weather forecast for this weekend. this is what I like to see :thumbsup:


.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE FOR INCREASED POPS
AND QPF AS MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO SLIDING NORTHWARD OFF THE SE CST.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
NEW ENGLAND REACHING ~1032 MB. THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER A DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH REACHES +2 ST DEV OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY PER GEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN AS THE FLOW IS CONSTRICTED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST.

FAR NRN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ERLY WED...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASING THRU THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODELS AGREE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LVL CUTOFF LO OVER NC/VA...BUT NOT OVER THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LO WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE TIMING OF PRECIP. IN GENERAL...CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD (FRI)...WITH THE
BEST BET FOR RAIN ON WED/WED NGT (70-80% POPS). CURRENT QPF
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1-2 IN OVER THE PIEDMONT/I-90 CORRIDOR...TO UP
TO 3-4 IN OVER ERN AREAS.

WINDY CONDITIONS (OUT OF THE NE) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S W...TO THE LOW/MID 60S E.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY TO THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATEST EFFECTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FA & COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEVERAL VORT LOBES
WILL ROTATE AROUND MAIN LOW. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF I95
(30-40%) WITH SLGHT CHC POPS WEST OF I95 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOIST
NE "WEDGE" COULD ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AT NIGHT.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS U60S-L70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
THE LOW NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MON & TUE. TSCTNS INDICATE ENUF
MOISTURE FOR M CLDY SKIES MON AND PT SUNNY TUESDAY. COULD ALSO BE
SOME LINGERING MORNING FOG & DRIZZLE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M70S.
LOWS IN THE 50S.


.MARINE...
INCRG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A RATHER TURBULENT PERIOD
FOR THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE UNDER DONE
THE WINDS UP TO THIS POINT...SO AFTER COORD...WILL GO AHEAD AND
UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS WED AND WED NIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS...
CURRITUCK SOUND AND SOUTHERN MOST CHES BAY (CAPPING WIND GUSTS AT 35
KTS FOR NOW). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE BAY AND LOCAL RIVERS SO KEPT A STRONG SCA
WITH WIND GUSTS CAPPED AT 30 KNOTS.

THE PERSISTENT NE WIND AND LONGER TRAJECTORY WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
PERIODS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS NEAR SHORE
SEAS APPROACH 8 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATEST DATA SUPPORTING A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD EVENT (TIDES AVERAGING
ABOUT 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL). LEVELS TOPPED OUT AT MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY AND NRN OUTER BANKS WITH
TODAYS HIGH TIDE (VIMS GUIDANCE VERIFIED THE BEST). DATA SUPPORTING
ABOUT THE SAME LEVELS WEDNESDAY. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVSRY
FOR BEACH ZONES (OXB-DUCK) THROUGH WED AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE JAMES RIVER FOR WED
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
va marsh rat
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Re: Weather this weekend

Postby LEWDOG » Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:31 am

:huh: NE strong winds and flooding is going to make my hunting grounds duck-less , good thing I will be up in the Charlottesville area .

:sad: LD :eek:
A Market Hunter born 100 years to late
:)/\__________<*)((((>{
The hardest thing a duck hunter in Va. has to do is to Not read more into the blind laws then what is in black and white . Lewdog 1999
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