Including Lost Game In Limit

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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Underradar » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:07 pm

100, 000 predators kill 70.5 ducks each = 7.5 million eaten ducks. But most of the ducks lost are just that - lost. Yes, they get lost and can't find the breeding grounds and die of loneliness. Especially those that use the Appalachian Flyway.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Indaswamp » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:14 pm

Cujo1 wrote:
possumfoot wrote:you need to do a little more research on predation and population densitys then..

and you can disagree that water does not freeze at 0c, but all that makes you is wrong..

i seem to remember the miss flyway going to a one hen mallard limit for a couple years and it had no impact on numbers.. then there was the point system.. and you should not count drake mallards as one drake will breed hens till he dies of exhaustion if given the chance..

a couple of NRM classes would do you alot of good..


(edit) i'm not saying hen mortality from legal hunting has any impact either, just pointing out another flaw in your argument..

So you mean to say that if hunters do not kill 7.5 million ducks in the Mississippi flyway, that the predators will. Impossible

If ducks don't find water when they fly north, how many will lay?
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby assateague » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:12 pm

I'm not saying hunting CAN'T impact it, but I'm saying that it DOESN'T impact it. There simply aren't enough hunters, and there are too many regs for that.

Interesting side note, and I will readily admit I have no scientific proof of this, just my own anecdotal "evidence".

Nature has a way of balancing itself out. I see it in my trapping all the time. In this day and age, it's basically impossible to trap an area out. I have trapped some of the exact same farms for years. If I have a great year at a certain spot, or hit it really hard, I see far bigger litters in the spring. Instead of fox litters of 3 or 4 I'll see 7 or 8. It's almost as if nature "knows" what the area can carry, and will see that's it's filled. I'd imagine ducks and geese do the same. One more egg per best May not seem like much, but that adds up quick when applied across an entire population.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby QH's Paw » Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:50 am

mauserfan wrote:I am posing a simple question to all as I have not seen addressed here: Do you include any lost game (game not found) in your bag limit? . Thanks a lot....mauser. :thumbsup:



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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby ks_waterfowler » Sun Sep 29, 2013 9:21 am

I count them. With my dog its rare to loose them anymore. Occasionally get a delayed kill that we can't find, but I count it in my limit. Also helps we shoot them close.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Bill Herian » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:17 pm

assateague wrote:Nature has a way of balancing itself out. I see it in my trapping all the time. In this day and age, it's basically impossible to trap an area out. I have trapped some of the exact same farms for years. If I have a great year at a certain spot, or hit it really hard, I see far bigger litters in the spring. Instead of fox litters of 3 or 4 I'll see 7 or 8. It's almost as if nature "knows" what the area can carry, and will see that's it's filled. I'd imagine ducks and geese do the same. One more egg per best May not seem like much, but that adds up quick when applied across an entire population.


This is exactly 100% a real thing.

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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby possumfoot » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:21 pm

Bill Herian wrote:
assateague wrote:Nature has a way of balancing itself out. I see it in my trapping all the time. In this day and age, it's basically impossible to trap an area out. I have trapped some of the exact same farms for years. If I have a great year at a certain spot, or hit it really hard, I see far bigger litters in the spring. Instead of fox litters of 3 or 4 I'll see 7 or 8. It's almost as if nature "knows" what the area can carry, and will see that's it's filled. I'd imagine ducks and geese do the same. One more egg per best May not seem like much, but that adds up quick when applied across an entire population.


This is exactly 100% a real thing.

Why I cannot remember the name is killing me

_____ respose?



population response?
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby possumfoot » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:28 pm

there is also environmental response, but that is nesting/food/predation ect and not population density based.. (if i remember correctly, its been a long time)
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Bill Herian » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:30 pm

Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby aunt betty » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:31 pm

When a subject has been beaten down like this one has, who claims the carcass and reduces it to their possesion?
Does it count towards some daily bag limit of BS?
Who gets to claim this one? If it is AT...there is a 50/50 chance he is over his limit of dead, beaten to death, subjects. :clapping:
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:32 pm

Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.

You should take a stab at explaining probability to Assa.....@
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby possumfoot » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:35 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.

You should take a stab at explaining probability to Assa.....@




i wish assa was a bookie!!
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Bill Herian » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:35 pm

Fish are the same way.

You can have a lake that is plumb full of huge breeding size fish. They can have all the spawning habitat they require, they can lay 100 billion eggs.

Then, when the fry are a few days old, you get the freak 25 degree spring night, and the water temperature drops below what those fry can handle.

It dosen't matter if there are 100 fry or 100 billion, they are all going to die.

The lake 80 miles to the south that didn't get the cold temps can be just fine, even though it has far fewer breeding fish.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:36 pm

possumfoot wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.

You should take a stab at explaining probability to Assa.....@




i wish assa was a bookie!!

:lol3: He'd loose his ASSA!!! :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Botiz630 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:40 pm

Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.


All of your scenarios are built on the premise of bad nesting conditions. It's always "yeah but what if conditions are bad? It doesn't matter how many ducks you have."

What if the nesting conditions were good? Would not 10k hens make more ducks than 5k hens?
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby possumfoot » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:40 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
possumfoot wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.

You should take a stab at explaining probability to Assa.....@




i wish assa was a bookie!!

:lol3: He'd loose his ASSA!!! :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:




:clapping: :lol: :lol: :lol: i'm glad i was not drinking anything.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby possumfoot » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:42 pm

Botiz630 wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.


All of your scenarios are built on the premise of bad nesting conditions. It's always "yeah but what if conditions are bad? It doesn't matter how many ducks you have."

What if the nesting conditions were good? Would not 10k hens make more ducks than 5k hens?



oddly enough, no.. if nesting is the same, natural predation will occure at a higher rate because of the nest density.
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pgquackstacker wrote:I actually started bringing a gun with me on dates, so I bring the girl's father out to my car and tell him if he tries to cock-block me I'll kill him.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby aunt betty » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:44 pm

Indaswamp wrote:
possumfoot wrote:
Indaswamp wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.

You should take a stab at explaining probability to Assa.....@




i wish assa was a bookie!!

:lol3: He'd loose his ASSA!!! :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3: :lol3:

50/50.

Speaking of the 50/50.

If a rooster gets onto a gable roof to lay an egg...according to AT and his magical 50/50 that applies to EVERYTHING and it somehow predicts there is a 50/50 chance that the egg will roll down one side except for one thing.
Roosters cant lay eggs.

Epic 50/50 failure. He'll say there is a 50/50 chance the rooster will lay an egg because either it will or it wont.
It wont...100%
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Botiz630 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:47 pm

possumfoot wrote:
Botiz630 wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.


All of your scenarios are built on the premise of bad nesting conditions. It's always "yeah but what if conditions are bad? It doesn't matter how many ducks you have."

What if the nesting conditions were good? Would not 10k hens make more ducks than 5k hens?



oddly enough, no.. if nesting is the same, natural predation will occure at a higher rate because of the nest density.


Hmm. I suppose that makes sense.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:48 pm

Botiz630 wrote:
possumfoot wrote:
Botiz630 wrote:
Bill Herian wrote:
Cujo1 wrote:Possum, this is one fact that I have always disagreed with. 2012 showed approximately 7.5 million birds harvested in the Mississippi Flyway. There is no way in hell that the biologists will ever convince me that if none of those ducks are killed there won't be more breeding pair the next year. Up to the point of habitat not being able to sustain the population the amount of birds would have to increase. Just like Snow geese, it has to even out. As you know currently all of the snow goose hunting just keeps the population in check. But I don't feel ducks have reached that magical threshold where hunters play very little if any part in population as biologists say.


I wonder how many times I've types this.

Ok, we are in the Miss flyway and we have two areas. Area 1 has 10K hens nesting in it. Area 2 has 5K nesting hens.

It would seem like area one is going to produce more young of the year ducks, right?

Then we get a drought in area 1. Many nests are lost, and many nest become easier for predators to find. Nest that were in excellent spots with plenty of duck food are suddenly very hard places to bring up a brood, and mortality is high.

Area 2 got plenty of rain. Good nesting conditions throughout.

When its all said and done, the 10K hens in area 1 recruit an average of 3 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

The nesting hens in area 2 recruit 7 ducks per nesting hen to the population.

Five thousand hens just out mothered ten thousand.

The factors that determine how many ducks are recruited to the population is independant of the number of breeding ducks. Factors like weather, and nesting conditions are what impact numbers. We could close the hunting season for two whole years, to let the ducks breed, if those turn out to be two terrible years for nesting, we could easily end up with less ducks than we started with. The best breeding sites (those with the most food, protection,etc) are always going to be chosen first, and because we aren't that good at killing these things, there is always more than enough ducks to fill them. The remaining ducks are forced to settle on marginal sites that have a lower chance of recruiting big broods.

Even though seven million seems like a lot, it is not enough to make an appreciable difference. More ducks will step up and fill in the best nesting sites.

I don't know how to put it any simpler.


All of your scenarios are built on the premise of bad nesting conditions. It's always "yeah but what if conditions are bad? It doesn't matter how many ducks you have."

What if the nesting conditions were good? Would not 10k hens make more ducks than 5k hens?



oddly enough, no.. if nesting is the same, natural predation will occure at a higher rate because of the nest density.


Hmm. I suppose that makes sense.

best way to describe it is that everything tends toward equilibrium in nature.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Indaswamp » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:49 pm

exponential curves flatten out into "S" curves....
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Bill Herian » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:51 pm

aunt betty wrote:Speaking of the 50/50.

If a rooster gets onto a gable roof to lay an egg...according to AT and his magical 50/50 that applies to EVERYTHING and it somehow predicts there is a 50/50 chance that the egg will roll down one side except for one thing.
Roosters cant lay eggs.

Epic 50/50 failure. He'll say there is a 50/50 chance the rooster will lay an egg because either it will or it wont.
It wont...100%


You don't even have a basic grasp of 50/50

There is a 50/50 chance the rooster will lay an egg. Either it will, or it won't. There are two possible outcomes. Just because one never happens, doesn't negate the fact that one or the other will happen.

Which way the egg rolls is a separate event, with its own probability.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby Bill Herian » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:54 pm

Botiz630 wrote:All of your scenarios are built on the premise of bad nesting conditions. It's always "yeah but what if conditions are bad? It doesn't matter how many ducks you have."

What if the nesting conditions were good? Would not 10k hens make more ducks than 5k hens?


I get what you are saying, and yes, more ducks may very well make more ducks than less ducks.

I just arrange the scenario that way to show that less ducks can in fact out breed more ducks, under the right conditions.

Re-run the scenario with even populations in the two areas. What is the outcome? What is the limiting factor?
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby possumfoot » Sun Sep 29, 2013 7:03 pm

i cant remember where i read it, but theree was a study done on clutch success rates ect in areas where predator control/elimintation programs were in effect vs areas they were not.. now there is no way to stop predation 100% and even the trapping programs are only effective while in progress, but the impact of natural predation on waterfowl nests is phenominal.. super high rates of predation in areas where there are high nest densitys.. even trapped areas had somehting like 20-25% predation vs soemthing like 85-95 percent predation.
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Re: Including Lost Game In Limit

Postby SpinnerMan » Sun Sep 29, 2013 7:09 pm

BTW, the goal in my opinion should be to maximize harvest. Not maximize populations.

If you think the goal should be to maximize the population, limit your harvest to zero :thumbsup:

Unless there is an overpopulation to the point of disease or some other rare circumstances, minimizing harvest maximizes the population.
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