CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby ducslayer » Fri Nov 01, 2013 6:50 pm

Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaa. I didn't draw so it fixed! Whaaaaa. Whaaaaa. Whaaaaaa. :no: Pitiful.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby wanapasaki » Sat Nov 02, 2013 3:42 am

ducslayer wrote:Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaa. I didn't draw so it fixed! Whaaaaa. Whaaaaa. Whaaaaaa. :no: Pitiful.


lol did you get drawn?
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby Brewdad » Sat Nov 02, 2013 3:40 pm

ducslayer wrote:Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaa. I didn't draw so it fixed! Whaaaaa. Whaaaaa. Whaaaaaa. :no: Pitiful.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby ducslayer » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:38 pm

wanapasaki wrote:
ducslayer wrote:Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaa. I didn't draw so it fixed! Whaaaaa. Whaaaaa. Whaaaaaa. :no: Pitiful.


lol did you get drawn?


No.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby duxnbass » Sat Nov 02, 2013 9:04 pm

ducslayer wrote:Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaa. I didn't draw so it fixed! Whaaaaa. Whaaaaa. Whaaaaaa. :no: Pitiful.

LMAO.I am not whining, if any thing just explaining my results. I think it is a great program for those who get drawn I simply have plenty of other access to hunt and feel my odds are better at a better price with the refuge draws.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby Duckmansmoon » Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:08 pm

ducslayer wrote:Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaaa, Whaaaaaa. I didn't draw so it fixed! Whaaaaa. Whaaaaa. Whaaaaaa. :no: Pitiful.


Take a Statistics class and the world will look very different to you, ducslayer. I never said it was fixed but maybe not done correctly or biased. After talking with Jeff the outcome is that the hunt program is not biased but not at all random as we would like to think.

Here is the scoop from Jeff Smith

Hi,

I can assure you the draw is 100% random and is done by a third party. The individuals whom you have mentioned have won family hunts at Denverton. Each group must have at least one youth hunter to attend. Family hunts do not apply to all hunters, so the application numbers are generally much lower than our general hunts. These particular hunts at Denverton, which are family hunts receive very few applications per hunt. This is the reason you are seeing repeat winners on the family hunt days at Denverton.

Individuals can apply for every single hunt in the Hunt Program, but can not apply more than once per opportunity. For instance at Denverton, one hunter can apply to every blind on the property per date.

Please contact me anytime, if you have any questions regarding the Hunt Program.

Hope you have a great waterfowl season.

Best Regards,


Jeff Smith
Hunt Program Coordinator
Cell: (530) 305-9234
jeff_smith@calwaterfowl.org

I then followed up with the question..

Thank for the reply. One question I do have is what will happen on the 23rd on blind #4 winner and 1st alt cancel? I asked this since Mitchell Ling could get picked for Blind #4 if the Winner and 1st alt don't show up. In other words who would get blind #4

27. DENVERTON: Nov 23, Blind #3
a. Hunt Winner: Mitchell Ling
b. 1st Alternate: Ben Sparks
c. 2nd Alternate: Carson Cleland

28. DENVERTON: Nov 23, Blind #4
a. Hunt Winner: Jordan Ruiz
b. 1st Alternate: Hunter Cutting
c. 2nd Alternate: Mitchell Ling

Jeff's reply was

I email all applicants who applied for the hunt date. The open spot is filled by the first person who contacts me.

So in my mind the results are not biased but the method is a little flawed if it allows duplicates on the same day. That means you might not be picked because the program allows the same user to be picked twice for the same day.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby AJCsurf » Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:54 pm

Duckmansmoon wrote:

So in my mind the results are not biased but the method is a little flawed if it allows duplicates on the same day. That means you might not be picked because the program allows the same user to be picked twice for the same day.


...just like every other reservation process you have ever applied for relative to waterfowl hunting.

Is the ALDS and its coinciding application process flawed as well?

I've gotten one of those 2nd alternate calls on a dove hunt earlier this year with about a day or two notice. Jeff works really hard to fill all of those spots and to set up these hunts in the first place. Keep up the good work Jeff. :thumbsup:
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby closedzzonefarms » Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:49 am

From a donor's perspective, I think the program is fantastic. Jeff and his crew are great to work with and do a wonderful job representing the hunters in making this program possible. They are all very trustworthy and have continually made changes to improve and expand the program.
CWA has created the perfect opportunity for private clubs to open their doors to California hunters by providing the insurance, selection process, hunting guidelines and notification process.
I know Jeff and his crew are working very hard to get more clubs engaged and look forward to watching the program grow. Keep up the great work Jeff and CWA!!
Last edited by closedzzonefarms on Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby Hawkstp » Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:39 pm

Man, someone has to much time on their hands. Amazing how people want to find a conspiracy everywhere. Geez....
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby Brewdad » Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm

I find it incredibly sad that Jeff even had to reply to this. CWA, of all the groups to accuse, REALLY?? Were gonna have guys come on here accusing them of mismanagement of their hunt program? Sad.


KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK CWA. We do not all share Duckmanspoons negativity.

And, NO, I haven't been drawn either. Have however donated a hunt to a great program that gets a TON of Jr's out.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby wanapasaki » Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:07 pm

Brewdad wrote:I find it incredibly sad that Jeff even had to reply to this. CWA, of all the groups to accuse, REALLY?? Were gonna have guys come on here accusing them of mismanagement of their hunt program? Sad.


KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK CWA. We do not all share Duckmanspoons negativity.

And, NO, I haven't been drawn either. Have however donated a hunt to a great program that gets a TON of Jr's out.



<--Take this JR out lol
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby PetriDuck » Thu Nov 07, 2013 9:42 pm

wanapasaki wrote:
Brewdad wrote:I find it incredibly sad that Jeff even had to reply to this. CWA, of all the groups to accuse, REALLY?? Were gonna have guys come on here accusing them of mismanagement of their hunt program? Sad.


KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK CWA. We do not all share Duckmanspoons negativity.

And, NO, I haven't been drawn either. Have however donated a hunt to a great program that gets a TON of Jr's out.



<--Take this JR out lol



You have a spot up here in Colusa! Give me a heads up when you head this way! :beer:
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby Duckmansmoon » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:58 pm

Brewdad wrote:I find it incredibly sad that Jeff even had to reply to this. CWA, of all the groups to accuse, REALLY?? Were gonna have guys come on here accusing them of mismanagement of their hunt program? Sad.


KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK CWA. We do not all share Duckmanspoons negativity. And, NO, I haven't been drawn either. Have however donated a hunt to a great program that gets a TON of Jr's out.


It is duckmansmoon. What negativity have I shown and I never accused them of anything. I just asked if the hunts were biased or not done correctly. The facts show and I stated that the drawings are not biased but flawed by allowing the same person to be picked for multiple spots after "winning' a spot. Maybe this will help you understand Brewdad.

Two cars are available for you to rent. They add a random reservation system in order to be fair. There is one winner and two alts per car. 6 people sign up to reserve the cars and this is how the draw went. I will label them person 1 -5 and person 6B will be Brewdad.

Car 1 - Winner was person2
1st Alt was person 4
2nd Alt was Person 1

Car 2 - Winner was person 3
1st Alt was person 5
2nd Alt was Person 2 (This should be Brewdad)

Not only did you not get drawn but you were never considered for the drawing. Once person 2 was declared a winner he should have been removed from the remaining draws of that day. Person 2 can't drive two cars at once. This is what is happening by the data I showed. Show me where I am wrong Brewdad, please.
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby Duckmansmoon » Fri Nov 08, 2013 8:01 pm

Hawkstp wrote:Man, someone has to much time on their hands. Amazing how people want to find a conspiracy everywhere. Geez....



Nope just finishing up my thesis titled "Random sampling is not immune from bias nor is it truly ramdom".
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Re: CWA Hunt program biased or not done correctly

Postby 870dvldoc » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:36 pm

Ive put in for these hunts, and have put in for all of ressis! Have not drawn in 3 years for both! But, I have won a few things at the CWA events! Jeff and the CWA team are an awesome bunch, and put on a heck of a hunt. Tomorrow ill be sweating at San Jacinto and probably will not draw! But in the end, its for the ducks, jrs, waterfowlers, and last but not least our men and women fighting for us!RAAAHHH!
Dude thats a big duck.....your an idiot its a C5 taking off at Travis AFB.
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