Good temperature drop For Friday

[HydeMarsh]

I scouted around Mattamuskeet Thursday and Friday. saw almost no ducks. Talked wit one of the refuge workers who had just returned from the Managed Impoundments 8 through 10. He said he saw almost no ducks there. There are some back on "the Farm" and some on the impoundments close to the lake but not big numbers. Did not see any divers on the sound and very few puddle ducks there. did see scoters.

We have a big full moon and a cold front coming, what do the experts on this board think about the affect on hunting Saturday ?

[Dingbatter]

I don't know about ducks but I sure wish it would hurry up and frost so I won't have to mow the grass in my yard.

[EastBound&Down]

We have a big full moon and a cold front coming, what do the experts on this board think about the affect on hunting Saturday ?

Not putting too much thought into it and I'd be going rather it's 80degrees or 22 and spitting snow sideways. Too many of our ducks just pass through and here today gone tomorrow. I've never killed one sitting at home on the couch and I've seen it change over night too many times to count when it went from good to bad and vise versa. I'll be out the first 3 days targeting whatever is most abundant wether it is puddle, diver, or sea ducks and worst case scenario I'll have my fishing rod nearby.

[black_duck]

Canada is locked up. The Dakotas and Minnesota are locking up fast. The Great Lakes area has been snotty already a few times. Full moon this week and the biggest polar plunge of the season coming this week as well. North/North East winds forecasted for the weekend at 10-20 (still a long way off, so thats subject to change). I'll be in the blind.


Most of the ducks that are here in November are calendar migrators, and the weather doesn't have as big of an impact as many people think this time of year. These ducks are migrating on each passing front. Here today, gone tomorrow. Trick is just being out there that day when they're here. However, it is a little discouraging to hear that report form Hyde County.

I remember one time 3 or 4 years back when we were hunting in november and a front system was supposed to come through around lunch time. Morning started off foggy and slick calm with weather near 70 degrees. About ten o'clock flock after flock of teal started flying all over the place. Hadn't seen hardly a duck all day till that point. In about an hour and a half span we went from 1 duck to 15 or 16 ducks killed. Then you could hear a rushing noise coming across the sound and the wind picked up to about twenty five miles an hour and did a 180. The temperature dropped probably ten degrees in thirty minutes and started dumping rain. The point is the ducks can get here just like that.

[EastBound&Down]

If you hit it right I have seen Nov just as good as late season Jan. Real short window though
The best migration I ever saw in NC was 10+ years ago on a Nov opener when a front blew through. Wave after wave of ducks non stop for 3 hours straight. We took a 5 man limit of 7 different species on public land. Buddy went back and hunted same spot on following Monday and they only killed 1 duck.

[Paul26]

I like blackDuck's term "calendar Migrators". Never heard that....but that is exactly what I see with Nov ducks. I have seen them here in great numbers, and with the the weather staying perfectly calm (even warm), they're gone.

So to answer the question: if the conditions here are good I'd be out there. My circumstances....namely, a wife......will not permit me to be hunting.

[HydeMarsh]

the numbers do not suggest that the calendar migrators (gadwall, wigeon, pintails, and Green wing teal) continue farther south.

NC is their go to place on the Atlantic Flyway. Consider last year's harvest numbers:

2016 SC NC Fla
Wigeon 770 39,720 3500
Gadwall 8890 48,090 2100
Pintail 1200 9330 4400
GWT 14,450 38,760 14,950
Ringnecks 16,590 35,170 54,960
wood ducks 70,050 141,650 1200

[Capt. Cane]

This past week we have been seeing some flying south in the 3 mile area. Migration offshore starting to happen now.

[KAhunter]

This past week we have been seeing some flying south in the 3 mile area. Migration offshore starting to happen now.

I have never heard someone talk about offshore migration, though it makes sense. Do you usually see alot of ducks?? What types?

As for the opener, I would be going no matter what the weather. November is usually pretty good for us. There are birds around and if you can get lucky with a little weather to keep them moving you can kill some ducks. If there isnt much weather the birds can get stale but there is still some shooting to be had.

Birds showed with the last full moon and should keep showing up with this weather. I am cautiously optomistic. They are around, just hope they want to play on saturday.

[merg]

the numbers do not suggest that the calendar migrators (gadwall, wigeon, pintails, and Green wing teal) continue farther south.

NC is their go to place on the Atlantic Flyway. Consider last year's harvest numbers:

2016 SC NC Fla
Wigeon 770 39,720 3500
Gadwall 8890 48,090 2100
Pintail 1200 9330 4400
GWT 14,450 38,760 14,950
Ringnecks 16,590 35,170 54,960
wood ducks 70,050 141,650 1200

Rough count that's 200,000 ducks killed in just two states south of us. Most of those, excepting wood ducks, passed through NC. Our group sees a ton of ringers in Nov then few after.
For us Nov is good, the calendar ducks are gone by Dec and what we get Dec and Jan is dependent on the weather north of us pushing them down.

[OUTATIME]

I love thinking about this even when I hunt mostly resident wood ducks that are in my swamp all year

[Shurshot]

the numbers do not suggest that the calendar migrators (gadwall, wigeon, pintails, and Green wing teal) continue farther south.

NC is their go to place on the Atlantic Flyway. Consider last year's harvest numbers:

2016 SC NC Fla
Wigeon 770 39,720 3500
Gadwall 8890 48,090 2100
Pintail 1200 9330 4400
GWT 14,450 38,760 14,950
Ringnecks 16,590 35,170 54,960
wood ducks 70,050 141,650 1200

Rough count that's 200,000 ducks killed in just two states south of us. Most of those, excepting wood ducks, passed through NC. Our group sees a ton of ringers in Nov then few after.
For us Nov is good, the calendar ducks are gone by Dec and what we get Dec and Jan is dependent on the weather north of us pushing them down.

Merg, I agree strongly with your view. Peak numbers here in NC have always been around 3rd week in Nov. per actual bird counts. Then comes that dreaded first of December lull .... It’s not until later on when the weather has gotten nasty/cold up north do we start to see a significant “reassurgence” of these birds show. Lock it up above us, they are coming south to survive. Can be tons of them here during a cold January.

[HydeMarsh]

sorry my table did show up correctly in the post. the only significant number of ducks that go south are ring necks.

take wigeon for example:
NC killed 39,720
while SC killed only 770 and Fla 3500

Gadwall NC killed 48,090
while SC 8890 and Fla 12,100

wood ducks just move around a little but are in my area in fairly large numbers all year
NC killed 141,650 while SC killed 70,050 and Fla only killed 1200

[merg]

But you're leaving out gwteal and pintails which add up to another near 40,000 birds taken in two states whose combined duckhunter numbers are still 5000 short of NC.
Throw in Ga. and their 65,000 (other than wood ducks) taken, the big ringneck #s, and you are getting to a decent number of birds moving on south. I would also think many of SC and Ga.s wood ducks come from NC. The banded wood ducks Ive killed mostly came from MD and VA with one from NY.
The widgeon numbers do surprise me- both the numbers they don't kill and the number we supposedly do. We kill a few every year but seldom over a dozen. Don't hear of many others doing much or seeing a lot either. They must all be in Hyde :).
Gadwall are a recent phenomenon for us. Killed one or two a year up to about 10 yrs ago when they started showing up in numbers. They are now one of our crowds top 3 ducks harvested.

[HydeMarsh]

But you're leaving out gwteal and pintails which add up to another near 40,000 birds taken in two states whose combined duckhunter numbers are still 5000 short of NC.
Throw in Ga. and their 65,000 (other than wood ducks) taken, the big ringneck #s, and you are getting to a decent number of birds moving on south. I would also think many of SC and Ga.s wood ducks come from NC. The banded wood ducks Ive killed mostly came from MD and VA with one from NY.
The widgeon numbers do surprise me- both the numbers they don't kill and the number we supposedly do. We kill a few every year but seldom over a dozen. Don't hear of many others doing much or seeing a lot either. They must all be in Hyde :).
Gadwall are a recent phenomenon for us. Killed one or two a year up to about 10 yrs ago when they started showing up in numbers. They are now one of our crowds top 3 ducks harvested.

again sorry my chart screwed up.

Pintails: NC had 9,330 while SC had only 1200 and Fla had 4400

GWT : NC had 38,460 while SC had 14,450 and Fla had 15,950


I also believe NC report on Pintails is lower than it actually is. NC kills way more ducksthan our sister east coast southern states. lets you know how bad there hunting must be.

[Paul26]

Hyde, as an economist friend once told me: "If you torture the numbers enough, they will confess".

Your numbers show that more birds are harvested in NC than those states. That's absolutely true. Maybe this is why:

Numbers of Annual waterfowl licenses sold (https://www.realtree.com/waterfowl-hunt ... ing-nation. See photo)
NC-34,600
SC- 16,400
GA- 18,200
FLA- 13,500

I am not sure I understand how harvest numbers relate to the concept of early arrivers (Nov) migrating further south. Of course we kill more birds....we have twice as many hunters as 2 of our 3 neighbors to the south, and nearly the same with the other one.

With all that said, I have nothing more than personal experience for my argument. I have seen ducks aplenty during the 2d split (mid-Nov to the Dec break), then they're gone after the Dec break, with no explanation due to weather here.

[ncbufflehead]

So..................harvest numbers are a good way to estimate population numbers and migration?


If that is the case, there are no ducks in Pea Island.


Estimated harvest numbers don't mean anything if hunting effort is different. Florida has a ton of ducks with no where near the amount of hunters we have. The plantations in SC are basically one giant refuge with the owners competing to see who can hold the most ducks.

[Shurshot]

Good observation Paul. A better “indicator” would have been to use an actual waterfowl number count survey vs. harvest numbers in that any legitament management survey would have to disclose the “effort” of each state, ie. the number of hunters participating in the harvest effort per state. Average bird killed per hunter is significant info ...

[merg]

If that is the case, there are no ducks in Pea Island.
.

Saw a couple teal there the other day.

[HydeMarsh]

Hyde, as an economist friend once told me: "If you torture the numbers enough, they will confess".

Your numbers show that more birds are harvested in NC than those states. That's absolutely true. Maybe this is why:

Numbers of Annual waterfowl licenses sold (https://www.realtree.com/waterfowl-hunt ... ing-nation. See photo)
NC-34,600
SC- 16,400
GA- 18,200
FLA- 13,500

I am not sure I understand how harvest numbers relate to the concept of early arrivers (Nov) migrating further south. Of course we kill more birds....we have twice as many hunters as 2 of our 3 neighbors to the south, and nearly the same with the other one.

With all that said, I have nothing more than personal experience for my argument. I have seen ducks aplenty during the 2d split (mid-Nov to the Dec break), then they're gone after the Dec break, with no explanation due to weather here.

However, most ducks in NC are killed 5 eastern counties. this started out as a discussion on calendar migrators South Carolina's plantations don't hold a candle to the big/ lightly hunted impoundments where I hunt. North Carolina has a lot of central to western NC hunters that kill very few bird, raise some good dogs and go to trials and raise lots of money for organization that create habitat for flyway birds. Small number of hunters kill a lot of birds (calendar migrators) in NC's top 5 counties. that is why I used kill reports. Many areas of the state never see a wigeon, gadwall or pintail - especially in any numbers.

[black_duck]

Only two more days till it's go time. Heading east tomorrow AM and I'm like a 9 year old on Christmas Eve. Haven't heard many reports on people seeing ducks but that doesn't effect my excitement.

[EastBound&Down]

Same here. Reports I'm getting don't sound too promising. Still hopeful some will show last minute to save the day. Reguardless will still give it a try and go fishing if need be.