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A major part of the problem is Canada is now plowing up acres of grasses and draining those small wetlands that ducks love to nest in.....They seem to be making the same mistakes we have made in the past.

As far as AHM goes...it can be good or bad...An example is this year in MN our counts were way up...the USFWS counts were down...but when the 2 were added together it allowed the long season/high limit. Unfortunately our count was conducted when the birds had yet to migrate out of MN....We had very few resident birds all summer long.......so this year AHM failed......I talked with a USFWS guy today and he agreed that he to would rather see a limit lowered if it meant we would see more birds....as it stands now...the only birds I bagged were the only birds I saw...thats scarey...
 

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well to you guys who think the birds are yet to come, think about this

Nesting success in 1955 for ducks was 21%
Nesting success in 1972 dropped to 15%
Nesting success in 1992 dropped to 10%

see a trend?

Assuming the trend continues and with the loss of habitat to agriculture and predators having an easier time finding the nest in this shrinking enviroment, there is no reason to believe it hasn't. The nesting success now is in all probability in single digits.

Now consider that a minimum of 12 to 20% is needed to make any increase in the population.

Now consider a long season with high limits and a low nest success rate....Do you really believe that we are now not shooting our base/breeding population......

All I can say is this: Wake up or enjoy your seasons now because the end is coming
 

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Unfortunately yes I do...When a top bbiologist said the day is coming when we wil always have ducks to look at, but not to hunt...and I see the change....yes I believe it...........And part of the problem is hunters are to trusting to raise any stink....
 

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well here's something else to consider. The North American Waterfowl Management Plan called for 100 million bird fall flight....

This spring the USFWS reported the breeding population at 36 million....in a perfect world 1/2 of that 36 million will be hens...and of those 18 million hens...lets be overly optimistic and say they have a 20% nest success and all produce 10 young birds...that means 36 million new ducks were raised..which added to the 36 million we already have is 72 million birds....far below the 100 million called for....and remember that nest success hasn't been 20% since 1955......and with the habitat loss contiuing at the pace it is....well you get the idea....If your mind hasn't changed...do me a favor....5 years from now remember we had this conversation...because thats about as close to real duck hunting you'll get...Take care...I hope your right, but 47 years has taught me different...couple that with the fact I work for the goverment and know how it operates....
 
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